Italy: Poll by Ipsos from 06.09.2022

Italy: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
FdI
25.1
-0.4
PD
20.5
-1.1
M5S
14.5
-0.3
Lega
12.5
+0.7
FI
8.0
±0.0
A/IV
6.7
+0.2
AVS
3.4
-0.2
Exit
3.0
±0.0
+E
2.5
+0.4
NM
1.0
+0.5
UP
1.0
+0.3
IC
0.8
+0.2
Others
1.0
-0.3
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
-0.9
PD
+1.4
M5S
-0.9
Lega
+3.7
FI
-0.1
A/IV
-1.1
AVS
-0.2
Exit
+1.1
+E
-0.3
NM
+0.1
UP
-0.4
IC
+0.2
Ipsos – 1000 respondents – 04.09.2022-06.09.2022

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates A/IV lower

In 40% of election polls Ipsos rates A/IV lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Movimento 5 Stelle higher

In 36% of election polls, Ipsos rates Movimento 5 Stelle higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Italy from Ipsos shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 25.1%, Partito Democratico 20.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 14.5%, Lega 12.5%, Forza Italia 8%, A/IV 6.7%, AVS 3.4%, Italexit 3%, Più Europa 2.5%, NM 1%, UP 1% and IC 0.8%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Lega might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.7 growth since the last election. A/IV, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 48.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (04.09.2022 - 06.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
62
15.5%
AVS
14
3.5%
PD
88
22%
A/IV
29
7.3%
FI
34
8.5%
FdI
108
27%
Lega
53
13.3%
Exit
12
3%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
59.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
55.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + A/IV
53.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + Italexit
51.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + AVS + Italexit
51.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
51.0%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Italexit
49.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS + Italexit
49.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
48.8%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 04.09.2022 and 06.09.2022 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 25.1%, Partito Democratico 20.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 14.5%, Lega 12.5%, Forza Italia 8%, A/IV 6.7%, AVS 3.4%, Italexit 3%, Più Europa 2.5%, NM 1%, UP 1% and IC 0.8%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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