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Italy: Poll by Termometro Politico from 08.09.2022

Polling data

FdI
25.2
+0.4
PD
22.2
-0.8
M5S
13.3
+1.7
Lega
13.3
-0.6
FI
7.2
+0.2
A/IV
5.1
±0.0
Exit
2.8
±0.0
AVS
2.6
-0.1
UP
1.7
+0.2
+E
1.6
-0.1
NM
1.1
±0.0
IC
0.7
+0.1
Sonst.
3.2
-1.0
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
-0.8
PD
+3.1
M5S
-2.1
Lega
+4.5
FI
-0.9
A/IV
-2.7
Exit
+0.9
AVS
-1.0
UP
+0.3
+E
-1.2
NM
+0.2
IC
+0.1
Termometro Politico – 4600 respondents – 07.09.2022-08.09.2022

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Lega higher

In 37% of election polls, Termometro Politico rates Lega higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from Termometro Politico shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 25.2%, Partito Democratico 22.2%, Movimento 5 Stelle 13.3%, Lega 13.3%, Forza Italia 7.2%, A/IV 5.1%, Italexit 2.8%, AVS 2.6%, UP 1.7%, Più Europa 1.6%, NM 1.1% and IC 0.7%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Lega might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.5 growth since the last election. A/IV, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 52.9% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Termometro Politico. For this purpose, 4600 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (07.09.2022 - 08.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

400
M5S
62
PD
103
A/IV
23
FI
33
FdI
117
Lega
62
Majority requires 201 seats
Partito Democratico + Lega + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
260
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
241
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + A/IV
221
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
212
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
212
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
198

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by Termometro Politico. The survey took place between 07.09.2022 and 08.09.2022 among 4600 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 25.2%, Partito Democratico 22.2%, Movimento 5 Stelle 13.3%, Lega 13.3%, Forza Italia 7.2%, A/IV 5.1%, Italexit 2.8%, AVS 2.6%, UP 1.7%, Più Europa 1.6%, NM 1.1% and IC 0.7%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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