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Italy: Poll by SWG from 09.09.2022

Polling data

FdI
27.0
+1.2
PD
20.4
-1.0
Lega
12.1
±0.0
M5S
12.0
+0.1
A/IV
7.5
+0.3
FI
6.7
±0.0
AVS
4.0
-0.2
Exit
2.9
-0.2
+E
2.1
+0.2
NM
1.4
-0.1
IC
1.0
-0.3
UP
1.0
-0.2
Sonst.
1.9
+0.2
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+1.0
PD
+1.3
Lega
+3.3
M5S
-3.4
A/IV
-0.3
FI
-1.4
AVS
+0.4
Exit
+1.0
+E
-0.7
NM
+0.5
IC
+0.4
UP
-0.4
SWG – 1200 respondents – 06.09.2022-09.09.2022

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from SWG shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 27%, Partito Democratico 20.4%, Lega 12.1%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12%, A/IV 7.5%, Forza Italia 6.7%, AVS 4%, Italexit 2.9%, Più Europa 2.1%, NM 1.4%, IC 1% and UP 1%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Lega might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.3 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 51.1% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by SWG. For this purpose, 1200 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (06.09.2022 - 09.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

400
M5S
53
AVS
18
PD
91
A/IV
33
FI
30
FdI
121
Lega
54
Majority requires 201 seats
Partito Democratico + Lega + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
228
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Movimento 5 Stelle
228
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Forza Italia
207
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
205
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
204

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by SWG. The survey took place between 06.09.2022 and 09.09.2022 among 1200 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 27%, Partito Democratico 20.4%, Lega 12.1%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12%, A/IV 7.5%, Forza Italia 6.7%, AVS 4%, Italexit 2.9%, Più Europa 2.1%, NM 1.4%, IC 1% and UP 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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