Italy: Poll by GDC from 07.09.2022

Polling data

FdI
24.4
±0.0
PD
21.6
±0.0
Lega
12.5
±0.0
M5S
12.3
±0.0
A/IV
7.7
±0.0
FI
7.3
±0.0
AVS
3.2
±0.0
NM
3.1
±0.0
Exit
2.5
±0.0
+E
2.3
±0.0
IC
0.9
±0.0
Others
2.2
±0.0
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
-1.6
PD
+2.5
Lega
+3.7
M5S
-3.1
A/IV
-0.1
FI
-0.8
AVS
-0.4
NM
+2.2
Exit
+0.6
+E
-0.5
IC
+0.3
GDC – 4854 respondents – 05.09.2022-07.09.2022

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Italy from GDC shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 24.4%, Partito Democratico 21.6%, Lega 12.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12.3%, A/IV 7.7%, Forza Italia 7.3%, AVS 3.2%, NM 3.1%, Italexit 2.5%, Più Europa 2.3% and IC 0.9%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Lega might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.7 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 48.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by GDC. For this purpose, 4854 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (05.09.2022 - 07.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
54
13.5%
AVS
14
3.5%
PD
94
23.5%
A/IV
33
8.3%
FI
31
7.8%
NM
13
3.3%
FdI
107
26.8%
Lega
54
13.5%
Partito Democratico + Lega + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
58.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
53.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Forza Italia
53.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + NM
51.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + NM
51.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
48.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by GDC. The survey took place between 05.09.2022 and 07.09.2022 among 4854 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 24.4%, Partito Democratico 21.6%, Lega 12.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12.3%, A/IV 7.7%, Forza Italia 7.3%, AVS 3.2%, NM 3.1%, Italexit 2.5%, Più Europa 2.3% and IC 0.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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