Italy
Election trend
Parties

Italy: Poll by CISE from 05.09.2022

Polling data

FdI
23.0
+18.4
PD
21.4
+1.0
M5S
16.6
-6.9
Lega
9.6
-21.2
FI
8.0
-3.0
AVS
5.9
+5.9
A/IV
5.3
+5.3
Exit
3.6
+3.6
NM
1.4
+1.4
IC
0.9
+0.9
Sonst.
4.3
-5.4
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
-3.0
PD
+2.3
M5S
+1.2
Lega
+0.8
FI
-0.1
AVS
+2.3
A/IV
-2.5
Exit
+1.7
NM
+0.5
IC
+0.3
CISE – 861 respondents – 31.08.2022-05.09.2022
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.
Low number of respondents
Only 861 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from CISE shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 23%, Partito Democratico 21.4%, Movimento 5 Stelle 16.6%, Lega 9.6%, Forza Italia 8%, AVS 5.9%, A/IV 5.3%, Italexit 3.6%, NM 1.4% and IC 0.9%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, AVS might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.3 growth since the last election. Fratelli d’Italia, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.0) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 43.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CISE. For this purpose, 861 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (31.08.2022 - 05.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

400
M5S
71
AVS
25
PD
92
A/IV
23
FI
34
FdI
99
Lega
41
Exit
15
Majority requires 201 seats
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
238
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + A/IV
220
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Italexit
212
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
211
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS + A/IV
211
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS + Italexit
210
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
204
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS + Italexit
203
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Italexit
201
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
197
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
188

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by CISE. The survey took place between 31.08.2022 and 05.09.2022 among 861 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 23%, Partito Democratico 21.4%, Movimento 5 Stelle 16.6%, Lega 9.6%, Forza Italia 8%, AVS 5.9%, A/IV 5.3%, Italexit 3.6%, NM 1.4% and IC 0.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.