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Elections

Italy: Poll by Termometro Politico from 16.03.2023

Polling data

FdI
29.5
+0.3
PD
18.0
±0.0
M5S
16.4
-0.4
Lega
9.2
-0.1
A/IV
7.7
+0.1
FI
7.5
+0.3
+E
2.3
±0.0
Exit
2.2
-0.2
AVS
2.0
-0.2
UP
1.5
+0.2
Others
3.7
0.0
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+3.5
PD
-1.1
M5S
+1.0
Lega
+0.4
A/IV
-0.1
FI
-0.6
+E
-0.5
Exit
+0.3
AVS
-1.6
UP
+0.1
Termometro Politico – 4200 respondents – 15.03.2023-16.03.2023
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates Lega higher
In 46% of election polls, Termometro Politico rates Lega higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from Termometro Politico shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 29.5%, Partito Democratico 18%, Movimento 5 Stelle 16.4%, Lega 9.2%, A/IV 7.7%, Forza Italia 7.5%, Più Europa 2.3%, Italexit 2.2%, AVS 2% and UP 1.5%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Fratelli d’Italia might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.5 growth since the last election. AVS, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.6) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 52.3% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Termometro Politico. For this purpose, 4200 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (15.03.2023 - 16.03.2023).

Coalition possibilities

Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
57.9
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Forza Italia
56.2
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
52.3
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle
52.0

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results
This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by Termometro Politico. The survey took place between 15.03.2023 and 16.03.2023 among 4200 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 29.5%, Partito Democratico 18%, Movimento 5 Stelle 16.4%, Lega 9.2%, A/IV 7.7%, Forza Italia 7.5%, Più Europa 2.3%, Italexit 2.2%, AVS 2% and UP 1.5%.
How reliable are election polls?
Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.
What should you look out for in election polls?
Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.

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