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Italy: Poll by Noto from 25.03.2023

Polling data

FdI
29.0
+0.5
PD
21.0
+1.5
M5S
14.5
-2.0
Lega
8.5
-1.5
A/IV
8.0
±0.0
FI
7.5
-0.5
AVS
3.0
+1.5
+E
1.5
±0.0
NM
1.5
±0.0
Sonst.
5.5
+0.5
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+3.0
PD
+1.9
M5S
-0.9
Lega
-0.3
A/IV
+0.2
FI
-0.6
AVS
-0.6
+E
-1.3
NM
+0.6
Noto – 1000 respondents – 25.03.2023-25.03.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates A/IV higher

In 30% of election polls, Noto rates A/IV higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partito Democratico lower

In 33% of election polls Noto rates Partito Democratico lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from Noto shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 29%, Partito Democratico 21%, Movimento 5 Stelle 14.5%, Lega 8.5%, A/IV 8%, Forza Italia 7.5%, AVS 3%, Più Europa 1.5% and NM 1.5%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Fratelli d’Italia might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.0 growth since the last election. Più Europa, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.3) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 49.2% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Noto. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (25.03.2023 - 25.03.2023).

Coalition possibilities

400
M5S
63
AVS
13
PD
92
A/IV
35
FI
33
FdI
127
Lega
37
Majority requires 201 seats
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
227
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
225
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
223
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Forza Italia
223
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
203
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + AVS
203
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
197

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by Noto. Eligible voters were surveyed for this on 25.03.2023 1000. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 29%, Partito Democratico 21%, Movimento 5 Stelle 14.5%, Lega 8.5%, A/IV 8%, Forza Italia 7.5%, AVS 3%, Più Europa 1.5% and NM 1.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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