Italy
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Italy: Poll by EMG from 23.05.2024

Polling data

FdI
26.9
-0.9
PD
20.9
+0.6
M5S
15.7
-0.1
Lega
9.3
+0.3
FI
7.9
-0.3
SUE
4.5
-0.2
AVS
4.2
+0.3
A
3.7
+0.3
Sonst.
6.9
+0.0
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+0.9
PD
+1.8
M5S
+0.3
Lega
+0.5
FI
-0.2
SUE
New
AVS
+0.6
A
New
EMG – 2000 respondents – 19.05.2024-23.05.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from EMG shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 26.9%, Partito Democratico 20.9%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15.7%, Lega 9.3%, Forza Italia 7.9%, SUE 4.5%, AVS 4.2% and Azione 3.7%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Partito Democratico might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.8 growth since the last election. Forza Italia, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-0.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 47.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by EMG. For this purpose, 2000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (19.05.2024 - 23.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

96
SUE
4
M5S
17
AVS
4
PD
22
A
3
FI
8
FdI
28
Lega
10
Majority requires 49 seats
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
57
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
55
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
53
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
50
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
49
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
47
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
46

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in EU-Parliament was conducted by EMG. The survey took place between 19.05.2024 and 23.05.2024 among 2000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 26.9%, Partito Democratico 20.9%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15.7%, Lega 9.3%, Forza Italia 7.9%, SUE 4.5%, AVS 4.2% and Azione 3.7%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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