Italy: Poll by Termometro Politico from 23.05.2024

Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
FdI
26.8
-0.7
PD
19.6
+0.1
M5S
15.7
-0.3
Lega
9.0
±0.0
FI
8.5
+1.3
SUE
4.5
+4.5
AVS
4.0
+0.8
A
3.9
+0.1
PTD
2.5
+2.5
L
1.8
+1.8
AP
1.0
+1.0
Others
2.7
-11.1
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+0.8
PD
+0.5
M5S
+0.3
Lega
+0.2
FI
+0.4
SUE
New
AVS
+0.4
A
New
PTD
New
L
New
AP
New
Termometro Politico – 3900 respondents – 22.05.2024-23.05.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Lega higher

In 36% of election polls, Termometro Politico rates Lega higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Italy from Termometro Politico shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 26.8%, Partito Democratico 19.6%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15.7%, Lega 9%, Forza Italia 8.5%, SUE 4.5%, AVS 4%, Azione 3.9%, PTD 2.5%, Libertà 1.8% and AP 1%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Fratelli d’Italia might gain the most in voter favorability with +0.8 growth since the last election. Lega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (+0.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 48.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Termometro Politico. For this purpose, 3900 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (22.05.2024 - 23.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

400
Majority requires 201 seats
SUE
19
4.8%
M5S
69
17.3%
AVS
17
4.3%
PD
86
21.5%
A
16
4%
FI
37
9.3%
FdI
117
29.3%
Lega
39
9.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
57.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
56.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
55.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
52.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
50.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
48.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in EU-Parliament was conducted by Termometro Politico. The survey took place between 22.05.2024 and 23.05.2024 among 3900 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 26.8%, Partito Democratico 19.6%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15.7%, Lega 9%, Forza Italia 8.5%, SUE 4.5%, AVS 4%, Azione 3.9%, PTD 2.5%, Libertà 1.8% and AP 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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