Italy: Poll by Noto from 25.05.2024

Polling data

FdI
28.0
±0.0
PD
20.5
±0.0
M5S
15.0
±0.0
FI
9.0
±0.0
Lega
9.0
±0.0
AVS
4.0
±0.0
A
4.0
±0.0
SUE
4.0
±0.0
L
3.0
±0.0
PTD
2.2
±0.0
AP
0.5
±0.0
Others
0.8
±0.0
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+2.0
PD
+1.4
M5S
-0.4
FI
+0.9
Lega
+0.2
AVS
+0.4
A
New
SUE
New
L
New
PTD
New
AP
New
Noto – 1000 respondents – 25.05.2024-25.05.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partito Democratico lower

In 33% of election polls Noto rates Partito Democratico lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from Noto shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 28%, Partito Democratico 20.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15%, Forza Italia 9%, Lega 9%, AVS 4%, Azione 4%, SUE 4%, Libertà 3%, PTD 2.2% and AP 0.5%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Fratelli d’Italia might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.0 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-0.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 46.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Noto. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (25.05.2024 - 25.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

96
Majority requires 49 seats
SUE
3
4%
L
2
3%
M5S
15
15.1%
AVS
4
4%
PTD
2
2.2%
PD
20
20.7%
A
4
4%
FI
9
9.1%
FdI
28
28.2%
Lega
9
9.1%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Lega
55.2%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
54.2%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
54.2%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
50.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
49.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
47.9%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in EU-Parliament was conducted by Noto. Eligible voters were surveyed for this on 25.05.2024 1000. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 28%, Partito Democratico 20.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15%, Forza Italia 9%, Lega 9%, AVS 4%, Azione 4%, SUE 4%, Libertà 3%, PTD 2.2% and AP 0.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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