Italy
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Italy: Poll by SWG from 24.05.2024

Polling data

FdI
27.3
+0.3
PD
22.0
+1.0
M5S
14.7
-1.0
FI
8.6
+0.2
Lega
8.6
+0.3
AVS
4.6
±0.0
SUE
4.2
-0.2
A
4.0
-0.2
PTD
2.5
+0.1
L
2.0
-0.2
Sonst.
1.5
-0.3
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+1.3
PD
+2.9
M5S
-0.7
FI
+0.5
Lega
-0.2
AVS
+1.0
SUE
New
A
New
PTD
New
L
New
SWG – 2000 respondents – 20.05.2024-24.05.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from SWG shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 27.3%, Partito Democratico 22%, Movimento 5 Stelle 14.7%, Forza Italia 8.6%, Lega 8.6%, AVS 4.6%, SUE 4.2%, Azione 4%, PTD 2.5% and Libertà 2%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Partito Democratico might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.9 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-0.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 45.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by SWG. For this purpose, 2000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (20.05.2024 - 24.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

96
SUE
4
L
1
M5S
15
AVS
4
PTD
2
PD
22
A
3
FI
9
FdI
27
Lega
9
Majority requires 49 seats
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Lega
55
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
51
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
51
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
49
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
45

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in EU-Parliament was conducted by SWG. The survey took place between 20.05.2024 and 24.05.2024 among 2000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 27.3%, Partito Democratico 22%, Movimento 5 Stelle 14.7%, Forza Italia 8.6%, Lega 8.6%, AVS 4.6%, SUE 4.2%, Azione 4%, PTD 2.5% and Libertà 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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