Italy: Poll by Termometro Politico from 19.09.2024

Italy: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
FdI
29.1
-0.1
PD
23.2
-0.3
M5S
9.9
-0.1
FI/NM
9.3
-0.2
Lega
9.0
+0.4
AVS
7.0
+0.2
A
3.0
±0.0
IV
2.0
±0.0
+E
1.7
±0.0
PTD
1.6
-0.2
DSP
1.3
±0.0
L
0.9
±0.0
AP
0.3
±0.0
Others
1.7
+0.3
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+3.1
PD
+4.1
M5S
-5.5
FI/NM
New
Lega
+0.2
AVS
+3.4
A
New
IV
New
+E
-1.1
PTD
New
DSP
+0.1
L
New
AP
New
Termometro Politico – 3000 respondents – 18.09.2024-19.09.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Lega higher

In 35% of election polls, Termometro Politico rates Lega higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Italy from Termometro Politico shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 29.1%, Partito Democratico 23.2%, Movimento 5 Stelle 9.9%, FI/NM 9.3%, Lega 9%, AVS 7%, Azione 3%, Italia Viva 2%, Più Europa 1.7%, PTD 1.6%, DSp 1.3%, Libertà 0.9% and AP 0.3%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Partito Democratico might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.1 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 42.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Termometro Politico. For this purpose, 3000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (18.09.2024 - 19.09.2024).

Coalition possibilities

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
44
11%
AVS
31
7.8%
PD
103
25.8%
A
13
3.3%
FI/NM
41
10.3%
FdI
129
32.3%
Lega
39
9.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
53.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
51.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + AVS
49.8%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by Termometro Politico. The survey took place between 18.09.2024 and 19.09.2024 among 3000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 29.1%, Partito Democratico 23.2%, Movimento 5 Stelle 9.9%, FI/NM 9.3%, Lega 9%, AVS 7%, Azione 3%, Italia Viva 2%, Più Europa 1.7%, PTD 1.6%, DSp 1.3%, Libertà 0.9% and AP 0.3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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