Italy: Poll by EMG from 09.10.2024

Polling data

FdI
29.3
+2.0
PD
22.2
+3.5
M5S
12.0
-5.0
FI
8.5
+0.2
Lega
8.2
+0.1
AVS
7.1
+3.6
A
2.8
-0.7
IV
2.5
-1.7
+E
2.1
-0.6
NM
1.2
±0.0
Others
4.1
-1.4
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+3.3
PD
+3.1
M5S
-3.4
FI
+0.4
Lega
-0.6
AVS
+3.5
A
New
IV
New
+E
-0.7
NM
+0.3
EMG – 1523 respondents – 08.10.2024-09.10.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Italia Viva higher

In 51% of election polls, EMG rates Italia Viva higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates NM higher

In 38% of election polls, EMG rates NM higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Italy from EMG shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 29.3%, Partito Democratico 22.2%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12%, Forza Italia 8.5%, Lega 8.2%, AVS 7.1%, Azione 2.8%, Italia Viva 2.5%, Più Europa 2.1% and NM 1.2%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, AVS might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.5 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 52.9% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by EMG. For this purpose, 1523 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (08.10.2024 - 09.10.2024).

Coalition possibilities

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
55
13.8%
AVS
32
8%
PD
102
25.5%
FI
39
9.8%
FdI
135
33.8%
Lega
37
9.3%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Lega
58.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
57.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
56.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
55.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Forza Italia + Lega
52.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + AVS
51.0%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
49.0%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
47.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by EMG. The survey took place between 08.10.2024 and 09.10.2024 among 1523 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 29.3%, Partito Democratico 22.2%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12%, Forza Italia 8.5%, Lega 8.2%, AVS 7.1%, Azione 2.8%, Italia Viva 2.5%, Più Europa 2.1% and NM 1.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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