UBO Consulting
TV Dukagjini
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TV Dukagjini
1066 respondents
The next General Election in Kosovo is expected in 2030.
In Kosovo, a recent national poll by UBO Consulting places LVV at the forefront with 48.5%, trailed by PDK: 18.2%, LDK: 17.9%, AAK: 6.8%, LS: 3.2% and NISMA: 1.5%. Other parties secure 3.9% of the votes.
UBO Consulting achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.
On average, UBO Consulting's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
Kosovo's electoral threshold is 5%.
Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Kosovo's Parliament, the Kuvendi i Kosovës, consists of 120 members, each serving a four-year term. The electoral system features nationwide proportional representation with open lists. Out of 120 seats, 100 are contested by all parties, while 20 are specifically reserved for national minority representatives, including 10 for the Serb community. Voters cast a ballot for a party and can further select up to five individual candidates from that party's list, empowering citizens with direct influence over their chosen representatives.
Kosovo mandates a 5% national electoral threshold for political parties. To secure any of the 100 open seats, parties must clear this hurdle. This rule aims to prevent parliamentary fragmentation and facilitate stable government formation. Significantly, this 5% threshold does not apply to parties and initiatives representing national minorities vying for reserved seats, ensuring smaller ethnic communities gain parliamentary representation irrespective of their population size.
Forming a government in Kosovo demands an absolute majority: at least 61 of the 120 parliamentary seats. Since no single party typically achieves this, coalitions are the standard. Post-election, the President nominates a Prime Minister candidate to Parliament, usually the leader of the strongest party. Constitutionally, the government must integrate representatives from national minorities, especially Serbs. This provision aims to bolster state stability and inclusivity, though it frequently triggers complex negotiations among political blocs.