Latest Opinion Poll for the Kosovo Election (UBO Consulting, December 23, 2023)

December 16, 2023 - December 23, 2023

1066 respondents

Next General Election in Kosovo: 2029

The next General Election in Kosovo is expected in 2029.

Who is leading in the latest poll from UBO Consulting?

In the latest opinion poll for Kosovo's upcoming election, conducted by UBO Consulting on December 23, 2023, LVV leads with 48.5%. Trailing behind are PDK: 18.2%, LDK: 17.9%, AAK: 6.8%, LS: 3.2% and NISMA: 1.5%. Other parties secure 3.9% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the UBO Consulting Projection?

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PolitPro Score

UBO Consulting achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, UBO Consulting's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

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Majority requires 1 seats

Electoral Threshold

Kosovo's electoral threshold is 5%.

The Electoral System in Kosovo

Kosovo's Parliament, the Kuvendi i Kosovës, consists of 120 members, each serving a four-year term. The electoral system features nationwide proportional representation with open lists. Out of 120 seats, 100 are contested by all parties, while 20 are specifically reserved for national minority representatives, including 10 for the Serb community. Voters cast a ballot for a party and can further select up to five individual candidates from that party's list, empowering citizens with direct influence over their chosen representatives.

Electoral Thresholds

Kosovo mandates a 5% national electoral threshold for political parties. To secure any of the 100 open seats, parties must clear this hurdle. This rule aims to prevent parliamentary fragmentation and facilitate stable government formation. Significantly, this 5% threshold does not apply to parties and initiatives representing national minorities vying for reserved seats, ensuring smaller ethnic communities gain parliamentary representation irrespective of their population size.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Kosovo demands an absolute majority: at least 61 of the 120 parliamentary seats. Since no single party typically achieves this, coalitions are the standard. Post-election, the President nominates a Prime Minister candidate to Parliament, usually the leader of the strongest party. Constitutionally, the government must integrate representatives from national minorities, especially Serbs. This provision aims to bolster state stability and inclusivity, though it frequently triggers complex negotiations among political blocs.

Data Sources and Methodology

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