Kosovo: Opinion poll by UBO Consulting on 12/17/2024

The Assembly of the Republic of Kosovo (Kuvendi i Kosovës) consists of 120 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system is based on nationwide proportional representation with open lists. Out of 120 seats, 100 are open to all political parties, while 20 seats are strictly reserved for representatives of national minorities (including 10 seats specifically for the Serbian community). Voters cast their ballot for a party and can additionally select up to five individual candidates from that party’s list, providing citizens with direct influence over the personal composition of the parliament.

Political parties in Kosovo must surpass a national electoral threshold of 5% to participate in the allocation of the 100 open parliamentary seats. This threshold is designed to maintain legislative stability and prevent excessive fragmentation. Crucially, this 5% rule does not apply to parties or initiatives representing national minority communities running for the reserved seats. This constitutional guarantee ensures that ethnic minorities maintain a parliamentary voice and representation, regardless of their percentage share of the total national vote.

Forming a government in Kosovo requires an absolute majority of at least 61 out of 120 seats. As no single party usually achieves this majority, coalition governments are the standard. Following an election, the President nominates a candidate for Prime Minister—typically the leader of the largest party. Constitutionally, the government must include representatives from the national minority communities. This requirement is intended to ensure inclusivity and state stability, though it often necessitates complex negotiations between different political blocs and minority representatives.

This overview shows all parties that, based on current polling, have a realistic chance of entering parliament in Kosovo or significantly shape the political debate. Classifying their political orientation is essential for understanding bloc formation and the mathematically possible majorities in the next parliament.