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Kosovo Valicon: Kosovo Parliamentary Election Poll, January 15, 2025

Strongest Force
LVV
33.0 points ahead of PDK
Government Majority
Stable Majority
67 of 120 seats in the Election Trend
Election year
2030
estimated
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Latest Poll: Kosovo Parliamentary Election Voting Intentions

The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. Valicon: latest poll for Kosovo's Parliamentary election, fieldwork completed January 15, 2025.

Changes since the last election on February 14, 2021

LVV
52.0
+1.7
PDK
19.0
+2.0
LDK
15.0
+2.3
AAK
8.0
+1.0
NDS
1.0
+1.0
PAI
1.0
+1.0
PBKDSH
1.0
+1.0
Other
3.0
Institute
Valicon
Client
telegrafi
Survey Period
January 10, 2025 – January 15, 2025
Respondents
776
Kosovo's governing coalition secures a stable majority.

Based on this poll, the parties currently in government would win 55.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading according to the poll by Valicon?

A recent voting intention poll for Kosovo by Valicon shows LVV leading with 52%, followed by PDK with 19%, LDK with 15%, AAK with 8%, Nova Demokratska Stranka with 1%, Partia e Ashkalinjve për Integrim with 1% and Partia Balli Kombëtar Demokrat Shqiptar with 1%. Other parties achieve 3% of the votes.

What do the symbols mean?

To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.

  • Far-Left
  • Left
  • Centre-Left
  • Center
  • Transversal
  • Unknown
  • Centre-Right
  • Right
  • Far-Right
  • Liberal
  • Environment & Climate
  • Regional
  • Animal Welfare
  • Satire

Seat projection based on this poll

Valicon: how reliable is the projection?

? PolitPro Score

No score calculated yet

Avg. deviation in elections
–

No election comparison yet

Recorded polls
0

Last on January 15, 2025

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

No significant deviations from the Election Trend

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Coalition calculator: majorities based on this poll

0
61
0 120
Majority 61

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

Scenarios: What if...?

Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.

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PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. LVV
    4%
  2. PDK
    0%
  3. LDK
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. LVV
    100%
  2. PDK
    <1%
  3. LDK
    0%

Probability of Entering Parliament

  1. AAK
    97%
  2. NDS
    <1%
  3. PAI
    <1%
  4. PBKDSH
    <1%
Unlock analysis

How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Valicon: Projected composition of parliament

Based on this poll, 4 parties would surpass the electoral threshold to enter Kosovo's parliament: LVV with 67 seats, PDK with 24 seats, LDK with 19 seats and AAK with 10 seats.

Kosovo's Electoral System Explained

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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

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Government formation and coalition traditions

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