Latvia Latvia's Parliamentary Election: Polls, Candidates, and Potential Coalitions
Weighted average across all institutes. The bars show the current standing, the chips the swing since the last election. Election Trend for Latvia's Parliamentary Election (as of 9 September 2026)
In the Election Trend, the governing alliance of Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP), Jaunā Vienotība, Nacionālā Apvienība and ZZS would take just 29.0% of the seats – too few for a majority of its own.
Winners of the last 30 days
- Apvienotais saraksts +4.0
- ZZS +2.9
- Jaunā Vienotība +0.9
- Nacionālā Apvienība +0.5
- Latvijas attīstībai +0.3
- Stabilitātei! +0.2
Losers of the last 30 days
- SV -3.7
- LPV -2.2
- Progresīvie -1.7
- Mēs mainām noteikumus -0.7
- Apvienība Jaunlatvieši -0.6
- Saskaņa -0.2
- Jaunā konservatīvā partija -0.2
Who Leads the PolitPro Election Trend in Latvia?
Who Leads the PolitPro Election Trend in Latvia?
Leading the current PolitPro Election Trend for Latvia's parliamentary election is Apvienotais saraksts with 22.7%, followed by SV with 12.7%, LPV with 12.6%, Progresīvie with 12.1%, Nacionālā Apvienība with 9.4%, Jaunā Vienotība with 8.1%, ZZS with 7.7%, Latvijas attīstībai with 3.1%, Mēs mainām noteikumus with 3.1%, Stabilitātei! with 2.8%, Saskaņa with 1.9%, Apvienība Jaunlatvieši with 1.3% and Jaunā konservatīvā partija with 0.8%. Other parties achieve 1.7% of the votes.
How we calculate the PolitPro Election Trend
How we calculate the PolitPro Election Trend
The PolitPro Election Trend transcends a mere snapshot. We aggregate data from every relevant polling institute into a weighted average for Latvia's parliamentary election. While classic voting intention polls (“Who would you vote for if there were an election next Sunday?”) fluctuate due to methodological reasons, our Election Trend offers a statistically robust foundation. It smooths out short-term outliers and unveils genuine political dynamics over time.
Combining multiple data sources minimizes the risk of random effects. Every survey carries a margin of error, typically between 1.5% and 3%. Our poll check for Latvia precisely indicates whether a party's gain signals a lasting shift or simply falls within the statistical uncertainty of a single institute.
The calculation adheres to a transparent mathematical model: recent polls are weighted more heavily than older data. Each institute's historical accuracy also factors into the calculation to offset methodological bias. The result is a reliable trend line that precisely maps Latvia's party system.
Coalition Calculator: Potential Majorities for Latvia's Parliamentary Election
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Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.
PolitPro Analysis
Probability of an Absolute Majority
-
LAS
0%
-
SV
0%
-
LPV
0%
Probability of Election Victory
-
LAS
100%
-
SV
<1%
-
LPV
<1%
-
P
<1%
Probability of Entering Parliament
-
LA
<1%
-
MMN
<1%
-
S!
<1%
-
S
<1%
-
ASL
<1%
-
JKP
<1%
How does the PolitPro Analysis work?
How does the PolitPro Analysis work?
Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Projected composition of parliament
Projected composition of parliament
Based on the Election Trend, 7 parties would secure seats in Latvia's parliament: Apvienotais saraksts with 27 seats, SV with 15 seats, LPV with 15 seats, Progresīvie with 14 seats, Nacionālā Apvienība with 11 seats, Jaunā Vienotība with 9 seats and ZZS with 9 seats.
Latvia's Electoral System Explained
Latvia's Electoral System Explained
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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles
Electoral Threshold and Hurdles
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Government formation and coalition traditions
Government formation and coalition traditions
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How Polls Are Shifting Ahead of Latvia's Parliamentary Election
Latest Election Polls from Polling Institutes
| Score | Institute | Date | AS | LAS | LPV | P | SV | NA | JV | ZZS | MMN | LA | S! | S | ASL | K | JKP | Other | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ? | Latvijas Fakti | 31 August 2026 | 23.6 | – | 12.6 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | – | 0.7 | 1.3 | |
| 79 | SKDS | 19 August 2026 | – | 23.6 | 12.2 | 14.1 | 17.1 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | – | 1.0 | 1.2 | |
| ? | Gemius | 7 April 2026 | – | 8.2 | 14.3 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 13.8 | |
| How reliable are the institutes? | |||||||||||||||||||
Latvia's Parliamentary Election at a Glance
Latvia's Government in Flux: Who's Running the Country?
On October 3, 2026, Latvia heads to the polls for the parliamentary election to the 15th Saeima. The country has been through a turbulent stretch: as recently as May 2026, Andris Kulbergs of "Apvienotais saraksts" (LAS) took office as Prime Minister after the previous government collapsed. Kulbergs, the LAS lead candidate, is promising an "effective and professional government". His party is currently leading in the polls, followed by the populist "Suverēnā vara" (SV) under Jūlija Stepaženko and "Latvija pirmajā vietā" (LPV) led by Ainārs Šlesers.
Economy, Security, Social Issues: The Key Topics of the Election
The campaign issues reflect the challenges of the moment. "Latvija pirmajā vietā" (LPV) is pushing a "Latvia First" agenda, centered on lower taxes and strong economic growth. "Nacionālā apvienība" (NA), led by Ilze Indriksone, puts national identity, border security, and strict immigration policy front and center. "Jaunā Vienotība" (JV), a pro-European party under Arvils Ašeradens, focuses on stability, security, and education. "Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība" (ZZS), with Viktors Valainis at the helm, is promising better healthcare and stronger support for families.
A Range of Voices: From Progressives to Populists
Beyond the major players, several other parties are entering the race. The "Progresīvie" (P), led by Andris Sprūds – whose resignation as Defence Minister triggered the government crisis – are targeting liberal and left-leaning voters. Populist forces such as "Suverēnā vara" (SV) and "Latvija pirmajā vietā" (LPV) are pushing back against Latvia's NATO alignment and calling for greater national sovereignty. For younger voters, the key issues are economic prospects, education, and Latvia's role in Europe. The election on 3 October will reveal which direction the country chooses to take for the next four years.
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