Latest Opinion Poll for Latvia (Gemius, April 7, 2026)

March 31, 2026 - April 7, 2026

1538 respondents

Next General Election in Latvia: October 3, 2026

The next General Election in Latvia takes place in 145 days.

Latvia: Government Majority Currently Uncertain

Based on the Gemius projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 50.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Gemius?

According to the latest national poll in Latvia by Gemius, LPV leads with 14.3%. They are followed by Progresīvie: 14.1%, Jaunā Vienotība: 9.4%, Nacionālā Apvienība: 8.4%, Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP): 8.2%, Mēs mainām noteikumus: 8.1%, SV: 6.1%, ZZS: 5.2%, Latvijas attīstībai: 3.9%, SDPS: 2.9%, Stabilitātei!: 2.2%, Apvienība Jaunlatvieši: 1.9%, K: 0.9% and Jaunā konservatīvā partija: 0.6%. Other parties secure 13.8% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Gemius Projection?

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PolitPro Score

Gemius achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Gemius's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Latvian election is 5%.

LPV + Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP)
Right
55.0%
LPV + Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + Mēs mainām noteikumus
Right
55.0%
LPV + Jaunā Vienotība + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + Mēs mainām noteikumus
Centre-Right
55.0%
Progresīvie + Jaunā Vienotība + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + Mēs mainām noteikumus
Centre-Left
54.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + Mēs mainām noteikumus + SV
Centre-Right
54.0%
LPV + Nacionālā Apvienība + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + Mēs mainām noteikumus
Right
53.0%
LPV + Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + SV
Right
52.0%
LPV + Jaunā Vienotība + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + SV
Centre-Right
52.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Gemius)

According to Gemius, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Latvian parliament: LPV with 20 representatives, Progresīvie with 19 representatives, Jaunā Vienotība with 13 representatives, Nacionālā Apvienība with 11 representatives, Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) with 11 representatives, Mēs mainām noteikumus with 11 representatives, SV with 8 representatives and ZZS with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Latvia

The Saeima, Latvia's parliament, comprises 100 deputies elected for a four-year term. Its electoral system employs proportional representation with open lists across five constituencies: Riga, Vidzeme, Latgale, Kurzeme, and Zemgale. A unique feature in Latvia is the flexible list system: voters can actively endorse candidates on the ballot by marking a plus sign, or express disapproval by striking names. This mechanism ensures the final ranking of elected deputies heavily reflects direct voter will, rather than solely party-determined order.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Saeima, Latvia enforces a nationwide electoral threshold of 5%. Only parties or electoral alliances securing at least 5% of the total votes cast (including overseas ballots) qualify for seat distribution. Mandates are then allocated within the five constituencies using the Sainte-Laguë method. This threshold aims to stabilize Latvia's often fragmented party system, ensuring only forces with significant national backing gain parliamentary representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Given Latvia's multi-party parliamentary system, coalition governments are standard practice. Following an election, the President nominates a Prime Minister candidate, who then endeavors to form a majority government. A cabinet requires formal confirmation through a confidence vote in the Saeima to commence its work. Due to political diversity, Latvian coalitions frequently comprise three or more parties, with negotiations often centering on national security, economic policy, and relations with the Russian-speaking minority.

Data Sources and Methodology

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