SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija
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Latvijas Televīzija
872 respondents
The next General Election in Latvia takes place in 81 days.
Based on the SKDS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 21.0% of the parliamentary seats.
According to the latest national poll in Latvia by SKDS, SDPS leads with 30%. They are followed by K: 15%, Jaunā Vienotība: 10%, Nacionālā Apvienība: 10%, AP!: 9%, ZZS: 9%, Par cilvēcīgu Latviju: 6%, LRA: 4%, Progresīvie: 4% and LKS: 3%. Other parties secure 0% of the votes.
SKDS achieved a PolitPro Score of 73 out of 100.
On average, SKDS's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
In 22% of polls, SKDS rated SDPS higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 29% of polls, SKDS rated ZZS higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 36% of polls, SKDS rated Jaunā Vienotība lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
The electoral threshold for the Latvian election is 5%.
Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
According to SKDS, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Latvian parliament: SDPS with 35 representatives, K with 17 representatives, Jaunā Vienotība with 11 representatives, Nacionālā Apvienība with 11 representatives, AP! with 10 representatives, ZZS with 10 representatives and Par cilvēcīgu Latviju with 6 representatives.
The Saeima, Latvia's parliament, comprises 100 deputies elected for a four-year term. Its electoral system employs proportional representation with open lists across five constituencies: Riga, Vidzeme, Latgale, Kurzeme, and Zemgale. A unique feature in Latvia is the flexible list system: voters can actively endorse candidates on the ballot by marking a plus sign, or express disapproval by striking names. This mechanism ensures the final ranking of elected deputies heavily reflects direct voter will, rather than solely party-determined order.
To enter the Saeima, Latvia enforces a nationwide electoral threshold of 5%. Only parties or electoral alliances securing at least 5% of the total votes cast (including overseas ballots) qualify for seat distribution. Mandates are then allocated within the five constituencies using the Sainte-Laguë method. This threshold aims to stabilize Latvia's often fragmented party system, ensuring only forces with significant national backing gain parliamentary representation.
Given Latvia's multi-party parliamentary system, coalition governments are standard practice. Following an election, the President nominates a Prime Minister candidate, who then endeavors to form a majority government. A cabinet requires formal confirmation through a confidence vote in the Saeima to commence its work. Due to political diversity, Latvian coalitions frequently comprise three or more parties, with negotiations often centering on national security, economic policy, and relations with the Russian-speaking minority.