Latest Opinion Poll for Latvia (SKDS, February 28, 2019)

February 1, 2019 - February 28, 2019

872 respondents

Next General Election in Latvia: October 3, 2026

The next General Election in Latvia takes place in 81 days.

Latvia's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the SKDS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 21.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from SKDS?

According to the latest national poll in Latvia by SKDS, SDPS leads with 30%. They are followed by K: 15%, Jaunā Vienotība: 10%, Nacionālā Apvienība: 10%, AP!: 9%, ZZS: 9%, Par cilvēcīgu Latviju: 6%, LRA: 4%, Progresīvie: 4% and LKS: 3%. Other parties secure 0% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the SKDS Projection?

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Latvian election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • S
    ??%
  • K
    ??%
  • JV
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • S
    ??%
  • K
    ??%
  • JV
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • S
    ??%
  • K
    ??%
  • ZZS
    ??%
  • LKS
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

K + Nacionālā Apvienība + Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + ZZS
Centre-Right
59.0%
SDPS + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS
Centre-Right
56.0%
SDPS + Jaunā Vienotība + AP!
Centre
56.0%
SDPS + AP! + ZZS
Centre-Right
55.0%
K + Nacionālā Apvienība + Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + Par cilvēcīgu Latviju
Centre-Right
55.0%
K + Nacionālā Apvienība + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS + Par cilvēcīgu Latviju
Centre-Right
55.0%
K + Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + ZZS + Par cilvēcīgu Latviju
Centre
54.0%
SDPS + K
Centre-Right
52.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: SKDS)

According to SKDS, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Latvian parliament: SDPS with 35 representatives, K with 17 representatives, Jaunā Vienotība with 11 representatives, Nacionālā Apvienība with 11 representatives, AP! with 10 representatives, ZZS with 10 representatives and Par cilvēcīgu Latviju with 6 representatives.

The Electoral System in Latvia

The Saeima, Latvia's parliament, comprises 100 deputies elected for a four-year term. Its electoral system employs proportional representation with open lists across five constituencies: Riga, Vidzeme, Latgale, Kurzeme, and Zemgale. A unique feature in Latvia is the flexible list system: voters can actively endorse candidates on the ballot by marking a plus sign, or express disapproval by striking names. This mechanism ensures the final ranking of elected deputies heavily reflects direct voter will, rather than solely party-determined order.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Saeima, Latvia enforces a nationwide electoral threshold of 5%. Only parties or electoral alliances securing at least 5% of the total votes cast (including overseas ballots) qualify for seat distribution. Mandates are then allocated within the five constituencies using the Sainte-Laguë method. This threshold aims to stabilize Latvia's often fragmented party system, ensuring only forces with significant national backing gain parliamentary representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Given Latvia's multi-party parliamentary system, coalition governments are standard practice. Following an election, the President nominates a Prime Minister candidate, who then endeavors to form a majority government. A cabinet requires formal confirmation through a confidence vote in the Saeima to commence its work. Due to political diversity, Latvian coalitions frequently comprise three or more parties, with negotiations often centering on national security, economic policy, and relations with the Russian-speaking minority.

Data Sources and Methodology

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