These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.

Far-Left

Left

Centre-Left

Centre

Transversal

Unknown

Centre-Right

Right

Far-Right

Liberal

Green

Regional

Animal Welfare

Satire

SKDS

LTV

October 1, 2024 - October 29, 2024

1807 respondents

Next General election in Latvia: October 3, 2026

The next General election in Latvia takes place in 225 days.

Latvia: Government Majority Currently Uncertain

Based on the SKDS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 51.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from SKDS?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Latvia, conducted by SKDS on October 29, 2024, Jaunā Vienotība leads with 15.9%. Trailing are Nacionālā Apvienība: 15.2%, LPV: 12.5%, Progresīvie: 11.1%, Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP): 9.1%, ZZS: 9.1%, SDPS: 7.6%, Stabilitātei!: 7%, SV: 4%, Latvijas attīstībai: 2.6%, Jaunā konservatīvā partija: 1.6%, Par!: 1.5%, Platforma 21: 1.1% and P21: 0.2%. Other parties secure 1.5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Latvia

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Latvia

Quality Check: How Reliable is the SKDS Projection?

PolitPro Score

SKDS achieved a PolitPro Score of 78 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, SKDS's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates LPV

In 25% of polls, SKDS rated LPV higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates SDPS

In 30% of polls, SKDS rated SDPS higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates ZZS

In 27% of polls, SKDS rated ZZS higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Jaunā Vienotība

In 33% of polls, SKDS rated Jaunā Vienotība lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

SKDS at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

100

Majority requires 51 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Latvian election is 5%.

Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + AP! + ZZS

Centre

57.0%

Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + AP! + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP)

Centre

57.0%

Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP)

Centre-Right

57.0%

Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + AP! + ZZS

Centre

55.0%

Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + AP! + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP)

Centre

55.0%

Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + ZZS + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP)

Centre

55.0%

Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + ZZS + Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP)

Centre

54.0%

Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + ZZS + Progresīvie

Centre-Left

54.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Factum)

According to Factum, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Latvian parliament: Jaunā Vienotība with 24 representatives, Nacionālā Apvienība with 13 representatives, SDPS with 11 representatives, AP! with 10 representatives, ZZS with 10 representatives, Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) with 10 representatives, Progresīvie with 9 representatives, Stabilitātei! with 7 representatives and K with 6 representatives.

The Electoral System in Latvia

The Saeima, Latvia's parliament, comprises 100 deputies elected for a four-year term. Its electoral system employs proportional representation with open lists across five constituencies: Riga, Vidzeme, Latgale, Kurzeme, and Zemgale. A unique feature in Latvia is the flexible list system: voters can actively endorse candidates on the ballot by marking a plus sign, or express disapproval by striking names. This mechanism ensures the final ranking of elected deputies heavily reflects direct voter will, rather than solely party-determined order.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Saeima, Latvia enforces a nationwide electoral threshold of 5%. Only parties or electoral alliances securing at least 5% of the total votes cast (including overseas ballots) qualify for seat distribution. Mandates are then allocated within the five constituencies using the Sainte-Laguë method. This threshold aims to stabilize Latvia's often fragmented party system, ensuring only forces with significant national backing gain parliamentary representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Given Latvia's multi-party parliamentary system, coalition governments are standard practice. Following an election, the President nominates a Prime Minister candidate, who then endeavors to form a majority government. A cabinet requires formal confirmation through a confidence vote in the Saeima to commence its work. Due to political diversity, Latvian coalitions frequently comprise three or more parties, with negotiations often centering on national security, economic policy, and relations with the Russian-speaking minority.

Coalition Calculator

Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

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