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Latest Opinion Poll for Latvia (SKDS, June 16, 2026)

June 6, 2026 - June 16, 2026

1832 respondents

Next General Election in Latvia: October 3, 2026

The next General Election in Latvia takes place in 82 days.

Latvia's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the SKDS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 32.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from SKDS?

According to the latest national poll in Latvia by SKDS, Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) leads with 17.1%. They are followed by LPV: 15%, SV: 13.8%, Progresīvie: 12.1%, Nacionālā Apvienība: 9.5%, Jaunā Vienotība: 7.3%, ZZS: 6.9%, Mēs mainām noteikumus: 4.5%, Stabilitātei!: 2.9%, SDPS: 2.8%, LKS: 2.2%, Latvijas attīstībai: 2%, Apvienība Jaunlatvieši: 1.7%, Jaunā konservatīvā partija: 0.5% and K: 0.5%. Other parties secure 1.2% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Latvia
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Latvia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the SKDS Projection?

73

PolitPro Score

SKDS achieved a PolitPro Score of 73 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, SKDS's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

SKDS at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Latvian election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • AS
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  • LPV
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • LPV
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  • SV
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SV
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  • ZZS
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  • MMN
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  • S!
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  • S
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  • LKS
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  • LA
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  • ASL
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  • JKP
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  • K
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + LPV + SV
Right
56.0%
LPV + SV + Nacionālā Apvienība + Jaunā Vienotība
Right
56.0%
Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + LPV + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS
Centre-Right
56.0%
LPV + SV + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS
Right
55.0%
Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + SV + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS
Centre-Right
55.0%
Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + Progresīvie + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS
Centre
53.0%
Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) + LPV + Nacionālā Apvienība
Right
51.0%
Progresīvie + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS
Centre-Left
32.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: SKDS)

According to SKDS, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Latvian parliament: Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) with 21 representatives, LPV with 18 representatives, SV with 17 representatives, Progresīvie with 15 representatives, Nacionālā Apvienība with 12 representatives, Jaunā Vienotība with 9 representatives and ZZS with 8 representatives.

The Electoral System in Latvia

The Saeima, Latvia's parliament, comprises 100 deputies elected for a four-year term. Its electoral system employs proportional representation with open lists across five constituencies: Riga, Vidzeme, Latgale, Kurzeme, and Zemgale. A unique feature in Latvia is the flexible list system: voters can actively endorse candidates on the ballot by marking a plus sign, or express disapproval by striking names. This mechanism ensures the final ranking of elected deputies heavily reflects direct voter will, rather than solely party-determined order.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Saeima, Latvia enforces a nationwide electoral threshold of 5%. Only parties or electoral alliances securing at least 5% of the total votes cast (including overseas ballots) qualify for seat distribution. Mandates are then allocated within the five constituencies using the Sainte-Laguë method. This threshold aims to stabilize Latvia's often fragmented party system, ensuring only forces with significant national backing gain parliamentary representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Given Latvia's multi-party parliamentary system, coalition governments are standard practice. Following an election, the President nominates a Prime Minister candidate, who then endeavors to form a majority government. A cabinet requires formal confirmation through a confidence vote in the Saeima to commence its work. Due to political diversity, Latvian coalitions frequently comprise three or more parties, with negotiations often centering on national security, economic policy, and relations with the Russian-speaking minority.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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