Latvia: Poll by Factum from 30.10.2020

Latvia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
AP!
17.2
+0.2
S
15.0
±0.0
JV
13.9
-1.1
NA
13.0
±0.0
ZZS
10.6
+1.6
K
8.5
+0.5
P
6.4
-0.6
LKS
3.6
+0.6
LRA
3.3
-0.7
PCL
1.0
-1.0
Others
7.5
+0.5
Development since the last election on 01.10.2022
AP!
+12.1
S
+10.2
JV
-5.2
NA
+3.6
ZZS
-2.2
K
+5.3
P
+0.2
LKS
-0.1
LRA
New
PCL
New
Factum – 853 respondents – 26.10.2020-30.10.2020

Next election: 2026

The next parliamentary election in Latvia is expected to take place in 2026.

Low number of respondents

Only 853 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Jaunā Vienotība higher

In 45% of election polls, Factum rates Jaunā Vienotība higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDPS lower

In 52% of election polls Factum rates SDPS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates ZZS lower

In 30% of election polls Factum rates ZZS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Latvia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Latvia from Factum shows the following results: AP! 17.2%, SDPS 15%, Jaunā Vienotība 13.9%, Nacionālā Apvienība 13%, ZZS 10.6%, K 8.5%, Progresīvie 6.4%, LKS 3.6%, LRA 3.3% and PCL 1%. If an election were held in Latvia this Sunday, AP! might gain the most in voter favorability with +12.1 growth since the last election. Jaunā Vienotība, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Krišjānis Kariņš is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from PCL, K, AP!, Nacionālā Apvienība and Jaunā Vienotība. With 63.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Factum. For this purpose, 853 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (26.10.2020 - 30.10.2020).

Coalition possibilities

100
Majority requires 51 seats
S
18
18%
P
7
7%
AP!
21
21%
ZZS
12
12%
JV
17
17%
K
10
10%
NA
15
15%
AP! + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS + K
60.0%
AP! + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS + K
58.0%
SDPS + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS + K
57.0%
AP! + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS + Progresīvie
57.0%
AP! + SDPS + Jaunā Vienotība
56.0%
AP! + SDPS + K + Progresīvie
56.0%
AP! + Jaunā Vienotība + K + Progresīvie
55.0%
SDPS + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS + Progresīvie
54.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS + K
54.0%
AP! + Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība
53.0%
SDPS + Jaunā Vienotība + K + Progresīvie
52.0%
AP! + SDPS + ZZS
51.0%
AP! + Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS
50.0%
AP! + ZZS + K + Progresīvie
50.0%
AP! + SDPS + K
49.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Latvia was conducted by Factum. The survey took place between 26.10.2020 and 30.10.2020 among 853 eligible voters. After this election poll would get AP! 17.2%, SDPS 15%, Jaunā Vienotība 13.9%, Nacionālā Apvienība 13%, ZZS 10.6%, K 8.5%, Progresīvie 6.4%, LKS 3.6%, LRA 3.3% and PCL 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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