Latvia: Poll by Factum from 31.07.2021

Latvia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
JV
16.2
+0.3
S
15.8
-1.3
NA
14.4
+1.1
ZZS
11.6
-0.9
AP!
11.5
+0.4
P
6.5
+0.4
K
5.8
-2.0
LRA
4.1
+0.6
LK
4.1
+0.8
LKS
3.4
-0.4
PCL
0.6
±0.0
Others
6.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 01.10.2022
JV
-2.9
S
+11.0
NA
+5.0
ZZS
-1.2
AP!
+6.4
P
+0.3
K
+2.6
LRA
New
LK
New
LKS
-0.3
PCL
New
Factum – 1069 respondents – 27.07.2021-31.07.2021

Next election: 2026

The next parliamentary election in Latvia is expected to take place in 2026.

Institute often rates Jaunā Vienotība higher

In 45% of election polls, Factum rates Jaunā Vienotība higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDPS lower

In 52% of election polls Factum rates SDPS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates ZZS lower

In 30% of election polls Factum rates ZZS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Latvia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Latvia from Factum shows the following results: Jaunā Vienotība 16.2%, SDPS 15.8%, Nacionālā Apvienība 14.4%, ZZS 11.6%, AP! 11.5%, Progresīvie 6.5%, K 5.8%, LRA 4.1%, LuK 4.1%, LKS 3.4% and PCL 0.6%. If an election were held in Latvia this Sunday, SDPS might gain the most in voter favorability with +11.0 growth since the last election. Jaunā Vienotība, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.9) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Krišjānis Kariņš is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from PCL, K, AP!, Nacionālā Apvienība and Jaunā Vienotība. With 59.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Factum. For this purpose, 1069 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (27.07.2021 - 31.07.2021).

Coalition possibilities

100
Majority requires 51 seats
S
19
19%
P
8
8%
AP!
14
14%
ZZS
14
14%
JV
20
20%
K
7
7%
NA
18
18%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + ZZS + Progresīvie
56.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + ZZS + K
55.0%
SDPS + AP! + ZZS + Progresīvie
55.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + Progresīvie + K
54.0%
SDPS + AP! + ZZS + K
54.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + ZZS
53.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + AP!
53.0%
Nacionālā Apvienība + AP! + ZZS + K
53.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS
52.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + AP!
52.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + ZZS + Progresīvie + K
49.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + Progresīvie + K
49.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Latvia was conducted by Factum. The survey took place between 27.07.2021 and 31.07.2021 among 1069 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Jaunā Vienotība 16.2%, SDPS 15.8%, Nacionālā Apvienība 14.4%, ZZS 11.6%, AP! 11.5%, Progresīvie 6.5%, K 5.8%, LRA 4.1%, LuK 4.1%, LKS 3.4% and PCL 0.6%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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