Latvia: Poll by Factum from 01.10.2021

Latvia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
JV
15.5
-1.4
AP!
14.8
+0.8
S
13.4
-1.2
NA
11.9
+0.2
ZZS
8.5
-0.6
K
6.9
+0.8
LK
6.1
+1.0
P
5.7
±0.0
LRA
4.0
+0.3
LKS
2.9
+0.1
Others
10.3
0.0
Development since the last election on 01.10.2022
JV
-3.6
AP!
+9.7
S
+8.6
NA
+2.5
ZZS
-4.3
K
+3.7
LK
New
P
-0.5
LRA
New
LKS
-0.8
Factum – 1170 respondents – 01.09.2021-01.10.2021

Next election: 2026

The next parliamentary election in Latvia is expected to take place in 2026.

Institute often rates Jaunā Vienotība higher

In 45% of election polls, Factum rates Jaunā Vienotība higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDPS lower

In 52% of election polls Factum rates SDPS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates ZZS lower

In 30% of election polls Factum rates ZZS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Latvia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Latvia from Factum shows the following results: Jaunā Vienotība 15.5%, AP! 14.8%, SDPS 13.4%, Nacionālā Apvienība 11.9%, ZZS 8.5%, K 6.9%, LuK 6.1%, Progresīvie 5.7%, LRA 4% and LKS 2.9%. If an election were held in Latvia this Sunday, AP! might gain the most in voter favorability with +9.7 growth since the last election. ZZS, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.3) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Krišjānis Kariņš is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from PCL, K, AP!, Nacionālā Apvienība and Jaunā Vienotība. With 60.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Factum. For this purpose, 1170 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 30 days (01.09.2021 - 01.10.2021).

Coalition possibilities

100
Majority requires 51 seats
S
16
16%
P
7
7%
AP!
18
18%
ZZS
10
10%
JV
19
19%
K
8
8%
NA
15
15%
LK
7
7%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + ZZS + K
55.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + ZZS + Progresīvie
54.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + ZZS + LuK
54.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + ZZS + K
53.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + SDPS
53.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + ZZS + Progresīvie
52.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS + K
52.0%
AP! + SDPS + ZZS + K
52.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + Nacionālā Apvienība
52.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + K + Progresīvie
52.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + AP! + K + LuK
52.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS + LuK
51.0%
AP! + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS + K
51.0%
AP! + SDPS + ZZS + Progresīvie
51.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + SDPS + K + Progresīvie
50.0%
AP! + Nacionālā Apvienība + ZZS + LuK
50.0%
Jaunā Vienotība + Nacionālā Apvienība + K + LuK
49.0%
AP! + SDPS + K + Progresīvie
49.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Latvia was conducted by Factum. The survey took place between 01.09.2021 and 01.10.2021 among 1170 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Jaunā Vienotība 15.5%, AP! 14.8%, SDPS 13.4%, Nacionālā Apvienība 11.9%, ZZS 8.5%, K 6.9%, LuK 6.1%, Progresīvie 5.7%, LRA 4% and LKS 2.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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