Latest Opinion Poll for the Lithuanian Election (Baltijos tyrimai, January 24, 2026)

January 8, 2026 - January 24, 2026

1063 respondents

Next General election in Lithuania: 2028

The next General election in Lithuania is expected in 2028.

Lithuania's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Baltijos tyrimai projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 70.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Baltijos tyrimai?

In the latest opinion poll for the Lithuanian election, conducted by Baltijos tyrimai on January 24, 2026, LSDP leads with 17.7%. Trailing are TS-LKD: 16.4%, LVŽS: 14.6%, DSVL: 14%, Nemuno Aušra: 13.5%, LS: 9.4%, DP: 3.7%, Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija: 3.1% and Laisvės: 2.8%. Other parties secure 4.8% of the votes.

Lithuania: Current Election Trends
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Lithuanian Political Parties: Information, Comparisons, and Data

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Baltijos tyrimai Projection?

34

PolitPro Score

Baltijos tyrimai achieved a PolitPro Score of 34 out of 100.

4.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Baltijos tyrimai's figures deviate by 4.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Baltijos tyrimai at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

141
Majority requires 71 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Lithuania is 5%.

TS-LKD + LSDP + LVŽS
Centre-Right
63.1%
TS-LKD + LSDP + LRLS
Centre-Left
59.6%
TS-LKD + LVŽS + LRLS
Centre
58.9%
LSDP + LVŽS + LRLS + DP
Centre-Right
58.2%
TS-LKD + LSDP + DP
Centre
56.0%
TS-LKD + LVŽS + DP
Centre-Right
55.3%
TS-LKD + LRLS + TT + LLRA-KŠS
Centre
55.3%
TS-LKD + LVŽS + TT
Centre-Right
53.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Baltijos tyrimai)

According to Baltijos tyrimai data, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Lithuanian parliament: TS-LKD with 40 representatives, LSDP with 25 representatives, LVŽS with 24 representatives, LRLS with 19 representatives, DP with 14 representatives, TT with 11 representatives and LLRA-KŠS with 8 representatives.

The Electoral System in Lithuania

Lithuania's Parliament, the Seimas, comprises 141 members elected for a four-year term under a mixed-member electoral system. Seventy-one members are chosen in single-member constituencies via a majoritarian system, often requiring two rounds if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first. The remaining 70 seats are allocated through proportional representation from national party lists. This hybrid system aims to ensure both strong local representation and a proportional reflection of the nation's political currents.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Seimas via the national party list, individual parties in Lithuania must clear a 5% electoral threshold. For electoral alliances and coalitions, this hurdle stands at 7%. Parties failing to meet these quotas can still secure parliamentary representation if their candidates win a direct mandate in one of the 71 single-member constituencies. This rule consolidates the national party landscape while allowing space for locally entrenched figures and regional interest representatives.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Lithuania requires a Seimas majority to elect the Prime Minister and approve the government's program. Given that the mixed electoral system rarely grants any single party an absolute majority, coalition governments are the norm. The President of the Republic plays an active role, nominating a Prime Ministerial candidate after consultations with parliamentary factions. Resulting coalitions often bridge ideological divides, with negotiations typically centering on social security, economic growth, and the geopolitical situation in the Baltics.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

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