Lithuania Election Poll: Results from Spinter tyrimai on January 26, 2024

According to Baltijos tyrimai data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Lithuanian parliament: LSDP with 49 representatives, TS-LKD with 29 representatives, LVŽS with 28 representatives, LRLS with 21 representatives and DP with 14 representatives.

Lithuania's Parliament, the Seimas, comprises 141 members elected for a four-year term under a mixed-member electoral system. Seventy-one members are chosen in single-member constituencies via a majoritarian system, often requiring two rounds if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first. The remaining 70 seats are allocated through proportional representation from national party lists. This hybrid system aims to ensure both strong local representation and a proportional reflection of the nation's political currents.

To enter the Seimas via the national party list, individual parties in Lithuania must clear a 5% electoral threshold. For electoral alliances and coalitions, this hurdle stands at 7%. Parties failing to meet these quotas can still secure parliamentary representation if their candidates win a direct mandate in one of the 71 single-member constituencies. This rule consolidates the national party landscape while allowing space for locally entrenched figures and regional interest representatives.

Forming a government in Lithuania requires a Seimas majority to elect the Prime Minister and approve the government's program. Given that the mixed electoral system rarely grants any single party an absolute majority, coalition governments are the norm. The President of the Republic plays an active role, nominating a Prime Ministerial candidate after consultations with parliamentary factions. Resulting coalitions often bridge ideological divides, with negotiations typically centering on social security, economic growth, and the geopolitical situation in the Baltics.