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Latest Opinion Poll for the Lithuanian Election (Spinter tyrimai, July 29, 2024)

July 19, 2024 - July 29, 2024

1016 respondents

Next General Election for Lithuania's Seimas: 2028

The next General Election for Lithuania's Seimas is expected in 2028.

Lithuania's Government Majority Currently Uncertain

Based on the Spinter tyrimai projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 48.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Spinter tyrimai?

According to the latest national poll in Lithuania by Spinter tyrimai, LSDP leads with 21.5%. Trailing are Nemuno Aušra: 17%, TS-LKD: 16.8%, LVŽS: 13.3%, DSVL: 11.8%, LRLS: 10.7%, Laisvės: 5.3% and DP: 3.5%. Other parties secure 0.1% of the votes.

Lithuania: Current Election Trends
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Lithuanian Political Parties: Information, Comparisons, and Data
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Spinter tyrimai Projection?

49

PolitPro Score

Spinter tyrimai achieved a PolitPro Score of 49 out of 100.

2.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Spinter tyrimai's figures deviate by 2.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Spinter tyrimai at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Lithuania is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • LSDP
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  • NA
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  • TS-LKD
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • LSDP
    ??%
  • NA
    ??%
  • TS-LKD
    ??%
  • LVŽS
    ??%
  • DSVL
    ??%
  • LRLS
    ??%
  • LP
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • DSVL
    ??%
  • LP
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  • DP
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Spinter tyrimai)

According to Spinter tyrimai data, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Lithuanian parliament: LSDP with 32 representatives, Nemuno Aušra with 25 representatives, TS-LKD with 25 representatives, LVŽS with 19 representatives, DSVL with 17 representatives, LRLS with 16 representatives and Laisvės with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Lithuania

Lithuania's Parliament, the Seimas, comprises 141 members elected for a four-year term under a mixed-member electoral system. Seventy-one members are chosen in single-member constituencies via a majoritarian system, often requiring two rounds if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first. The remaining 70 seats are allocated through proportional representation from national party lists. This hybrid system aims to ensure both strong local representation and a proportional reflection of the nation's political currents.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Seimas via the national party list, individual parties in Lithuania must clear a 5% electoral threshold. For electoral alliances and coalitions, this hurdle stands at 7%. Parties failing to meet these quotas can still secure parliamentary representation if their candidates win a direct mandate in one of the 71 single-member constituencies. This rule consolidates the national party landscape while allowing space for locally entrenched figures and regional interest representatives.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Lithuania requires a Seimas majority to elect the Prime Minister and approve the government's program. Given that the mixed electoral system rarely grants any single party an absolute majority, coalition governments are the norm. The President of the Republic plays an active role, nominating a Prime Ministerial candidate after consultations with parliamentary factions. Resulting coalitions often bridge ideological divides, with negotiations typically centering on social security, economic growth, and the geopolitical situation in the Baltics.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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