Lithuania: Opinion poll by Spinter tyrimai on 10/27/2025

The Lithuanian Parliament (Seimas) consists of 141 members elected for a four-year term using a parallel voting system. 71 members are elected in single-member constituencies through a majority vote, often requiring a second-round runoff if no candidate secures an absolute majority initially. The remaining 70 seats are allocated via proportional representation from national party lists. This hybrid structure is designed to provide a balance between direct local representation for specific districts and a fair reflection of national political party strength.

To secure seats via the national party list in Lithuania, individual parties must surpass a 5% electoral threshold. For multi-party coalitions, the requirement is higher at 7%. However, candidates from parties that fail to meet these national thresholds can still enter the Seimas if they win a direct mandate in one of the 71 single-member constituencies. This rule encourages political consolidation on a national level while still allowing room for locally influential figures and regional interest representatives to gain a seat.

Forming a government in Lithuania requires a majority in the Seimas to elect the Prime Minister and approve the government program. Because the mixed electoral system rarely grants an absolute majority to a single party, coalition governments are the norm. The President of the Republic plays an active role in this process by nominating a Prime Ministerial candidate after consulting with parliamentary groups. These coalitions often bridge ideological gaps, with negotiations typically focusing on social welfare, economic growth, and the country’s geopolitical position in the Baltic region.

This overview shows all parties that, based on current polling, have a realistic chance of entering parliament in Lithuania or significantly shape the political debate. Classifying their political orientation is essential for understanding bloc formation and the mathematically possible majorities in the next parliament.