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Lithuania Spinter tyrimai: election polls, forecast accuracy and deviations

Spinter tyrimai: current voting intention polls in Lithuania

Last Poll July 28, 2026

View poll
Polling period: July 18, 2026 – July 28, 2026 Respondents: 1,022

Change from poll on June 28, 2026

22.9
-1.5
14.3
-2.6
NA
12.0
+3.6
11.5
-1.1
7.9
-0.2
6.5
+1.5
NS
6.1
LP
5.2
Other
13.6
-11.0

Previous polls by Spinter tyrimai

Poll on Respondents TS-LKD LSDP NA LRLS LVŽS DSVL NS LP Other View poll
June 28, 2026 1,022 24.4 16.9 8.4 12.6 8.1 5.0 24.6
May 30, 2026 1,022 24.3 13.9 9.9 11.9 8.9 3.1 6.1 4.7 10.9
April 28, 2026 1,021 24.8 11.9 10.3 12.1 13.3 5.2 5.6 3.4 13.4
March 28, 2026 1,013 23.3 13.6 9.1 13.6 8.5 7.4 4.8 5.4 14.3

Spinter tyrimai at a glance

49 PolitPro Score Rank 2 of 3 in Lithuania
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 45.3
Avg. deviation in elections
2.4 pp

2 election comparisons

Recorded polls
51

Last on July 28, 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Spinter tyrimai: which parties does it overstate and understate?

Significant from 20 % of polls
Laisvės
Often rated higher
2 % 54 %
At trend level
43 %
Polls
46
LRLS
Often rated higher
4 % 45 %
At trend level
51 %
Polls
51
NS
Often rated higher
0 % 25 %
At trend level
75 %
Polls
8
TS-LKD
Often rated higher
18 % 41 %
At trend level
41 %
Polls
51
LVŽS
Often rated lower
55 % 14 %
At trend level
31 %
Polls
51
Nemuno Aušra
Often rated lower
60 % 15 %
At trend level
25 %
Polls
20
DSVL
Often rated lower
52 % 3 %
At trend level
45 %
Polls
31
LSDP
Often rated lower
71 % 6 %
At trend level
24 %
Polls
51

How are the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend, which calculates a time-weighted average of current election polls, serves as a reference. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the Election Trend.

Spinter tyrimai: How accurate were its past election polls?

Accuracy in Elections 1.9 Percentage points deviation Solid Results Individual Parties: 0.3 to 3.6 percentage points
Last Election Parliamentary election in Lithuania 2024 Rank 1 of 1 institutes
Very Accurate Very Inaccurate
Parliamentary election in Lithuania 2024: 1.9, Parliamentary election in Lithuania 2020: 2.9
0 Very Reliable

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll was only slightly off the result.

1 Solid Results

In 1 elections, the pre-election poll deviated moderately from the result on average.

1 Significant Deviations

In 1 elections, pre-election polls and results differed significantly.

0 Very Large Deviations

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll significantly missed the result.

2 elections compared with Spinter tyrimai · Select point for details, tap category to highlight.

How do we calculate accuracy in elections?

Accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare the pre-election polls of the institutes with the actual result of an election. We compare the average deviation of the parties' values and form an average from them. In the calculation, we consider all parties with an election result of 3% and higher. Election polls have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We rate average deviations of up to one percentage point as very good (green), and up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Values up to 3 percentage points deviation are rated as ok (orange), but already show significant outliers for some parties. Average deviations of more than three percentage points indicate deficiencies in accuracy and significance and are rated as bad (red).

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