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Lithuania: Poll by Vilmorus from 21.07.2024

Polling data

LSDP
26.4
-4.0
TS-LKD
15.7
+4.6
LVŽS
13.8
-1.0
DSVL
10.2
-4.2
NA
9.9
+9.9
LS
7.1
+7.1
DP
6.7
-0.3
LRP
4.8
-0.4
LP
4.3
+0.1
LLRA-KŠS
1.7
-0.7
Development since the last election on 25.10.2020
LSDP
+16.8
TS-LKD
-10.1
LVŽS
-4.3
DSVL
New
NA
New
LS
New
DP
-3.1
LRP
+1.5
LP
-5.2
LLRA-KŠS
-3.3
Vilmorus – 1000 respondents – 11.07.2024-21.07.2024

Next election: 13.10.2024

The next general election in Lithuania will be held in 5.

Institute often rates LSDP higher

In 41% of election polls, Vilmorus rates LSDP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LVŽS higher

In 35% of election polls, Vilmorus rates LVŽS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Lithuania - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Lithuania from Vilmorus shows the following results: LSDP 26.4%, TS-LKD 15.7%, LVŽS 13.8%, DSVL 10.2%, NA 9.9%, LS 7.1%, DP 6.7%, LRP 4.8%, Laisvės 4.3% and LLRA-KŠS 1.7%. If an election were held in Lithuania this Sunday, LSDP might gain the most in voter favorability with +16.8 growth since the last election. TS-LKD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Ingrida Šimonytė is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from LRP and LVŽS. With 15.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Vilmorus. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 10 days (11.07.2024 - 21.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

141
NA
15
LSDP
42
DP
10
LS
11
LVŽS
22
DSVL
16
TS-LKD
25
Majority requires 71 seats
LSDP + TS-LKD + LVŽS
89
LSDP + TS-LKD + DSVL
83
LSDP + LVŽS + DSVL
80
LSDP + TS-LKD + DP
77
LSDP + LVŽS + DP
74
TS-LKD + LVŽS + DSVL + DP
73

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Lithuania was conducted by Vilmorus. The survey took place between 11.07.2024 and 21.07.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get LSDP 26.4%, TS-LKD 15.7%, LVŽS 13.8%, DSVL 10.2%, NA 9.9%, LS 7.1%, DP 6.7%, LRP 4.8%, Laisvės 4.3% and LLRA-KŠS 1.7%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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