Lithuania: Poll by Vilmorus from 16.11.2024

Polling data

LSDP
24.3
-2.1
NA
20.7
+4.0
LS
13.5
+6.0
TS-LKD
11.8
-1.5
DSVL
10.8
+1.3
LVŽS
9.6
+0.5
NS
3.1
+2.0
LLRA-KŠS
2.2
+0.3
LT
1.9
+0.2
Others
2.1
-10.7
Development since the last election on 13.10.2024
LSDP
+4.6
NA
+5.4
LS
+5.7
TS-LKD
-6.5
DSVL
+1.4
LVŽS
+2.4
NS
+0.2
LLRA-KŠS
-1.8
LT
+1.1
Vilmorus – 1000 respondents – 07.11.2024-16.11.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Lithuania is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates LSDP higher

In 41% of election polls, Vilmorus rates LSDP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates LVŽS higher

In 33% of election polls, Vilmorus rates LVŽS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Lithuania - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Lithuania from Vilmorus shows the following results: LSDP 24.3%, NA 20.7%, LS 13.5%, TS-LKD 11.8%, DSVL 10.8%, LVŽS 9.6%, NS 3.1%, LLRA-KŠS 2.2% and LT 1.9%. If an election were held in Lithuania this Sunday, LS might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.7 growth since the last election. TS-LKD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-6.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Ingrida Šimonytė is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from LRP and LVŽS. With 10.6% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Vilmorus. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (07.11.2024 - 16.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

141
Majority requires 71 seats
NA
32
22.7%
LSDP
38
27%
LS
21
14.9%
LVŽS
15
10.6%
DSVL
17
12.1%
TS-LKD
18
12.8%
LSDP + NA + LS
64.5%
LSDP + NA + TS-LKD
62.4%
LSDP + NA + DSVL
61.7%
LSDP + NA + DSVL
61.7%
LSDP + NA + LVŽS
60.3%
NA + LS + DSVL + LVŽS
60.3%
NA + TS-LKD + DSVL + LVŽS
58.2%
NA + TS-LKD + DSVL + LVŽS
58.2%
LSDP + LS + TS-LKD
54.6%
LSDP + LS + DSVL
53.9%
LSDP + LS + DSVL
53.9%
LSDP + LS + LVŽS
52.5%
LSDP + TS-LKD + DSVL
51.8%
LSDP + TS-LKD + LVŽS
50.4%
NA + LS + TS-LKD
50.4%
LS + TS-LKD + DSVL + LVŽS
50.4%
LS + TS-LKD + DSVL + LVŽS
50.4%
LSDP + DSVL + LVŽS
49.6%
LSDP + NA
49.6%
NA + LS + DSVL
49.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Lithuania was conducted by Vilmorus. The survey took place between 07.11.2024 and 16.11.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get LSDP 24.3%, NA 20.7%, LS 13.5%, TS-LKD 11.8%, DSVL 10.8%, LVŽS 9.6%, NS 3.1%, LLRA-KŠS 2.2% and LT 1.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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