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Opinion Poll for the General election in Lower Austria (Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft, August 25, 2022)

August 25, 2022

745 respondents

Next General Election in Lower Austria: 2028

The next General Election in Lower Austria is expected in 2028.

Governing Coalition in Lower Austria Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 53.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft?

According to the latest national poll in Lower Austria by Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft, ÖVP leads with 32%. They are followed by SPÖ: 29%, FPÖ: 21%, NEOS: 9%, GRÜNE: 5% and MFG: 4%.

Current Election Trend: Lower Austria
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and party data for Lower Austria
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft Projection?

80

PolitPro Score

Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft achieved a PolitPro Score of 80 out of 100.

2.0

Election Accuracy

On average, Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft's figures deviate by 2.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

Lower Austria's General election mandates an electoral threshold of 4%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • ÖVP
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  • SPÖ
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  • FPÖ
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • ÖVP
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  • SPÖ
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  • FPÖ
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • NEOS
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  • GRÜNE
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft)

According to data from Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Lower Austria parliament: ÖVP with 18 representatives, SPÖ with 17 representatives, FPÖ with 12 representatives, NEOS with 5 representatives, GRÜNE with 2 representatives and MFG with 2 representatives.

Lower Austria's Electoral System

Lower Austria's Landtag, with 56 members, ranks among the largest provincial parliaments. Its electoral system features an exceptionally strong preference vote, where a valid preference for a candidate can even override a conflicting party vote. The province is divided into 20 constituencies, fostering a very close connection between citizens and their elected representatives.

Electoral Thresholds

The electoral system mandates either a 4% threshold at the provincial level or the securing of a direct mandate in one of the 20 constituencies. Due to the high number of constituencies, the statistical probability of obtaining a direct mandate is higher here than in smaller federal states, theoretically benefiting regional initiatives.

Government Formation and Traditions

Lower Austria operates under a unique 'Proporz' system: any party securing a specific number of seats gains a constitutional right to representation in the provincial government. Despite this mandatory coalition structure, larger parties typically forge an additional 'working agreement' (coalition) to define a clear political direction.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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