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Latest Opinion Poll for the Lower Saxony Election (INSA, April 21, 2026)

April 14, 2026 - April 21, 2026

1000 respondents

Next Lower Saxony State Election: 2027

The next Lower Saxony State Election is expected in 2027.

Incumbent Lower Saxony Government Without a Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 41.5% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?
According to the latest state-wide poll in Lower Saxony by INSA, CDU leads with 25%. They are followed by SPD: 25%, AfD: 20%, Grüne: 12%, Die Linke: 7%, FDP: 4% and BSW: 3%. Other parties secure 4% of the votes.
Current Election Trend: Lower Saxony
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Lower Saxony
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

82

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 82 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Lower Saxony state election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • CDU
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  • SPD
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  • AfD
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • CDU
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  • SPD
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  • AfD
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • Linke
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  • FDP
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  • BSW
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?
Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)
According to INSA data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Lower Saxony Landtag: CDU with 38 representatives, SPD with 38 representatives, AfD with 30 representatives, Grüne with 18 representatives and Die Linke with 11 representatives.

The Electoral System in Lower Saxony
Lower Saxony's state parliament (Landtag) is elected via a mixed-member proportional system, utilizing both direct constituency votes and party-list votes. The system is designed for 135 members. A distinctive feature is the high number of constituencies (87), which significantly strengthens the direct link between representatives and citizens across this large federal state. Overhang mandates are compensated by leveling mandates.

Electoral Thresholds
In Hannover, the five-percent electoral threshold applies without exception. This regularly results in a concentrated party landscape within the state parliament. Lower Saxony proves challenging for smaller parties, as the political center traditionally holds significant sway.

Government Formation and Traditions
Lower Saxony is known for its classic two-party alliances. Whether Red-Green or Grand Coalitions, governments in Hannover are considered stable and less prone to experimentation than those in city-states. Agricultural policy and the automotive industry (Volkswagen) consistently form the substantive pillars of any coalition.
Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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