Lower Saxony: Poll by Allensbach from 12.01.2024

Polling data

CDU
30.0
+1.0
SPD
29.0
-3.0
AfD
21.0
+7.0
Grüne
11.0
-2.0
FDP
4.0
-1.0
Linke
2.0
-1.0
Others
3.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 09.10.2022
CDU
+1.9
SPD
-4.4
AfD
+10.1
Grüne
-3.5
FDP
-0.7
Linke
-0.7
Allensbach – 1070 respondents – 19.12.2023-12.01.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Lower Saxony is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates AfD lower

In 33% of election polls Allensbach rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 44% of election polls, Allensbach rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Lower Saxony - The latest poll for the State election in Lower Saxony from Allensbach shows the following results: CDU 30%, SPD 29%, AfD 21%, Grüne 11%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2%. If an election were held in Lower Saxony this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +10.1 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Stephan Weil is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 44.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Allensbach. For this purpose, 1070 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 24 days (19.12.2023 - 12.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

135
Majority requires 68 seats
SPD
43
31.9%
Grüne
16
12.1%
CDU
45
33%
AfD
31
23.1%
CDU + SPD
65.2%
CDU + AfD
56.3%
CDU + Grüne
45.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Lower Saxony was conducted by Allensbach. The survey took place between 19.12.2023 and 12.01.2024 among 1070 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU 30%, SPD 29%, AfD 21%, Grüne 11%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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