Lower Saxony: Poll by INSA from 11.11.2024

Polling data

CDU
31.0
+2.0
SPD
26.0
-1.0
AfD
16.0
-1.0
Grüne
10.0
-3.0
BSW
6.0
+6.0
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Linke
2.0
-1.0
Others
5.0
-2.0
Development since the last election on 09.10.2022
CDU
+2.9
SPD
-7.4
AfD
+5.1
Grüne
-4.5
BSW
New
FDP
-0.7
Linke
-0.7
INSA – 1000 respondents – 04.11.2024-11.11.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Lower Saxony is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 40% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 36% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Lower Saxony - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Lower Saxony from INSA shows the following results: CDU 31%, SPD 26%, AfD 16%, Grüne 10%, BSW 6%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2%. If an election were held in Lower Saxony this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.1 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Stephan Weil is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 40.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (04.11.2024 - 11.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

135
Majority requires 68 seats
SPD
40
29.6%
Grüne
15
11.1%
BSW
9
6.7%
CDU
47
34.8%
AfD
24
17.8%
CDU + SPD
64.4%
CDU + AfD
52.6%
CDU + Grüne + BSW
52.6%
CDU + Grüne
45.9%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Lower Saxony was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 04.11.2024 and 11.11.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU 31%, SPD 26%, AfD 16%, Grüne 10%, BSW 6%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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