Latest voting intention survey by Ilres for Luxembourg
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Luxembourg conducted by Ilres, the parties received the following results: CSV 28.3%, LSAP 19.8%, Demokratesch Partei 17.4%, Déi Gréng 10.7%, Piratepartei 9.6%, ADR 6.9%, Déi Lénk 5%, Fokus 1.1%, KPL 0.4% and Déi Konservativ 0.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1887 people during the period 16.08.2023 - 16.08.2023. The survey was commissioned by Luxemburger Wort and RTL.
1887 participants
16.08.2023 - 16.08.2023
Ilres
Luxemburger Wort and RTL
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
Seats in parliament
60
Majority requires 31 seats
DL
3
5%
LSAP
12
19.9%
Pirat
6
9.7%
DP
11
17.5%
DG
6
10.8%
CSV
18
28.5%
ADR
4
6.9%
CSV + LSAP + Demokratesch Partei
CSV + LSAP + Déi Gréng
CSV + LSAP + Piratepartei
CSV + Demokratesch Partei + Déi Gréng
LSAP + Demokratesch Partei + Déi Gréng + Piratepartei
CSV + Demokratesch Partei + Piratepartei
CSV + Demokratesch Partei + ADR
LSAP + Demokratesch Partei + Déi Gréng + Déi Lénk
LSAP + Demokratesch Partei + Piratepartei + Déi Lénk
CSV + LSAP
Demokratesch Partei + Déi Gréng + Piratepartei + ADR + Déi Lénk
CSV + Déi Gréng + Piratepartei
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ilres pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.