Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Luxembourg (Ilres, April 24, 2026)

April 13, 2026 - April 24, 2026

1156 respondents

Next General Election in Luxembourg: 2028

The next General Election in Luxembourg is expected in 2028.

Incumbent Government in Luxembourg Without a Majority

Based on the Ilres projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 45.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Ilres?

According to the latest national poll in Luxembourg by Ilres, CSV leads with 21.8%. They are followed by Demokratesch Partei: 21.5%, LSAP: 20.9%, ADR: 11.4%, Déi Gréng: 9.5%, Déi Lénk: 5.8%, Piratepartei: 3.8%, Fokus: 2.2%, Liberté: 2.1%, Volt: 0.6%, Déi Konservativ: 0.3% and KPL: 0.2%.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Ilres Projection?

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PolitPro Score

Ilres achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Ilres's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the election in Luxembourg.

CSV + LSAP + Demokratesch Partei
Centre
66.7%
CSV + Demokratesch Partei + ADR
Centre-Right
56.7%
CSV + Demokratesch Partei + Déi Gréng
Centre
55.0%
CSV + LSAP + Déi Gréng
Centre
55.0%
LSAP + Demokratesch Partei + Déi Gréng
Centre-Left
53.3%
CSV + LSAP
Centre
45.0%
CSV + Demokratesch Partei
Centre
45.0%
LSAP + Demokratesch Partei
Centre-Left
43.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Ilres)

According to data from Ilres, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Luxembourg parliament: CSV with 14 representatives, Demokratesch Partei with 13 representatives, LSAP with 13 representatives, ADR with 7 representatives, Déi Gréng with 6 representatives, Déi Lénk with 3 representatives, Piratepartei with 2 representatives, Fokus with 1 representatives and Liberté with 1 representatives.

The Electoral System in Luxembourg

Luxembourg's Chamber of Deputies (Chambre des Députés) comprises 60 members elected for a five-year term. The country is divided into four electoral constituencies: South, Centre, North, and East. The electoral system is a unique form of proportional representation: voters cast as many votes as there are seats available in their respective constituency. They can opt to vote for an entire party list or allocate their votes individually to candidates, even across party lines (panachage). Additionally, a single candidate can receive a maximum of two votes (cumulation), granting citizens substantial control over the parliament's composition.

Electoral Thresholds

Luxembourg does not impose a legally mandated percentage electoral threshold (such as a 5% hurdle) at the national level. The de facto threshold for parliamentary entry stems from the electoral system and the varying sizes of the four constituencies. Since seats are allocated within these districts using the Hagenbach-Bischoff method, the effective threshold is lower in populous constituencies like the South compared to smaller ones like the East. This system enables a diverse range of parties to secure mandates based on regional strength, without needing to achieve a fixed national percentage.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Luxembourg is traditionally characterized by consensus and stability. As the electoral system rarely grants any single party an absolute majority of the 60 seats, coalitions are the norm. Following an election, the Grand Duke appoints a 'formateur,' typically the leader of the strongest party or a promising coalition option, to spearhead negotiations. In Luxembourgish politics, coalitions usually remain stable throughout the entire legislative period, with two or three parties often negotiating a joint government program.

Data Sources and Methodology

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