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Latest Opinion Poll for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Election (Forsa, May 3, 2024)

April 25, 2024 - May 3, 2024

1005 respondents

Next General Election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: September 20, 2026

The next General Election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania takes place in 60 days.

Incumbent Government in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Without a Majority

Based on the Forsa projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 28.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Forsa?

The latest state-wide survey from Forsa shows AfD commanding 25% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, with SPD: 20%, CDU: 19%, BSW: 14%, Grüne: 7%, Die Linke: 6% and FDP: 3% trailing. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Insights, comparisons, and data on parties in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Forsa Projection?

82

PolitPro Score

Forsa achieved a PolitPro Score of 82 out of 100.

1.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Forsa's figures deviate by 1.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Forsa at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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  • Grüne
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  • FDP
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Forsa)

According to Forsa data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania parliament: AfD with 20 representatives, SPD with 16 representatives, CDU with 15 representatives, BSW with 11 representatives, Grüne with 5 representatives and Die Linke with 4 representatives.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's Electoral System

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's electoral system allocates the 71 seats in its state parliament (Landtag) through a two-vote process. This personalized proportional representation ensures direct regional candidates are seated, while the second vote determines the overall distribution of political power. The system is designed to foster clear majorities and strong regional representation.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent threshold stands as the critical barrier in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Without a basic mandate clause, parties must prove their support statewide. Given the state's low population density, mobilizing voters across its expansive rural areas presents the greatest challenge for parties aiming to clear this electoral hurdle.

Government Formation and Traditions

Under Manuela Schwesig, the SPD remains the dominant political force in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's Northeast. Coalitions have historically been forged with both the CDU and Die Linke. Government formation in the state heavily prioritizes strengthening rural areas and expanding renewable energies, positioning MV as a significant player nationwide.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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