Latest Opinion Poll for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Election (Infratest dimap, September 16, 2023)

September 13, 2023 - September 16, 2023

1182 respondents

Next General election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: September 20, 2026

The next General election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania takes place in 197 days.

Incumbent Government in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Without a Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 31.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?

The latest opinion poll for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, conducted by Infratest dimap on September 16, 2023, shows AfD leading with 32%. Trailing behind are CDU: 21%, SPD: 21%, Grüne: 8%, Die Linke: 7% and FDP: 4%. Other parties secure 7% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

85

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 85 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

71
Majority requires 36 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania election is 5%.

AfD + CDU
Right
60.6%
CDU + SPD + Grüne
Centre
56.3%
CDU + SPD
Centre
47.9%
AfD + Die Linke
Right
43.7%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)

According to Infratest dimap data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania parliament: AfD with 26 representatives, CDU with 17 representatives, SPD with 17 representatives, Grüne with 6 representatives and Die Linke with 5 representatives.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's Electoral System

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's electoral system allocates the 71 seats in its state parliament (Landtag) through a two-vote process. This personalized proportional representation ensures direct regional candidates are seated, while the second vote determines the overall distribution of political power. The system is designed to foster clear majorities and strong regional representation.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent threshold stands as the critical barrier in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Without a basic mandate clause, parties must prove their support statewide. Given the state's low population density, mobilizing voters across its expansive rural areas presents the greatest challenge for parties aiming to clear this electoral hurdle.

Government Formation and Traditions

Under Manuela Schwesig, the SPD remains the dominant political force in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's Northeast. Coalitions have historically been forged with both the CDU and Die Linke. Government formation in the state heavily prioritizes strengthening rural areas and expanding renewable energies, positioning MV as a significant player nationwide.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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