Latest voting intention survey by ASDM for Moldova
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Moldova conducted by ASDM, the parties received the following results: PAS 37.4%, BECS 37.1%, Ș.O.R. 6.8%, PN 5.5%, PPDA 5.4%, PDA 2.2%, AUR 1.9% and PDM 1.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1181 people during the period 02.07.2021 - 02.07.2021.
1181 participants
21.06.2021 - 02.07.2021
ASDM
Seats in parliament
101
Majority requires 51 seats
BECS
41
40.6%
PN
6
5.9%
PAS
41
40.6%
PPDA
5
5%
Ș.O.R.
8
7.9%
PAS + BECS
PAS + Ș.O.R. + PPDA
PAS + PN + PPDA
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in ASDM pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 7.4 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
7.38
|
Parliamentary Election in Moldawien 2021 | 2/2 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.