Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Moldova (iData, February 24, 2022)

February 15, 2022 - February 24, 2022

1071 respondents

Next General election in Moldova: 2030

The next General election in Moldova is expected in 2030.

Moldova's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the iData projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 35.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from iData?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Moldova, conducted by iData on February 24, 2022, BECS holds a lead with 38.3%. Trailing behind are PAS: 32.6%, Ș.O.R.: 18.9%, PPDA: 4.7%, PDA: 2.9% and PN: 1.5%. Other parties secure 1.1% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the iData Projection?

70

PolitPro Score

iData achieved a PolitPro Score of 70 out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, iData's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

101
Majority requires 51 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Moldovan election is 5%.

BECS + PAS
Unknown
79.2%
BECS + Ș.O.R.
Unknown
64.4%
PAS + Ș.O.R.
Unknown
56.4%
BECS
Unknown
43.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: iData)

According to iData, 3 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Moldova's parliament: BECS with 44 representatives, PAS with 36 representatives and Ș.O.R. with 21 representatives.

Moldova's Electoral System

The Parliament of the Republic of Moldova comprises 101 deputies, elected for a four-year term. Since the 2022 electoral code reform, the entire Parliament is now elected via pure proportional representation within a single nationwide constituency. Voters cast their ballots for closed party lists. This system replaced a short-lived mixed-member proportional system, aiming to bolster political stability and diminish the influence of local oligarchic structures in single-member districts. Seat allocation directly reflects parties' nationwide vote share.

Electoral Thresholds

Moldova's parliamentary elections feature tiered electoral thresholds designed to prevent legislative fragmentation. Individual political parties must secure 5% of the nationwide valid votes to enter Parliament. For electoral blocs (alliances) comprising two or more parties, the threshold rises to 7%. Independent candidates can also compete, facing a reduced 2% threshold. Votes cast for parties failing to clear these hurdles are not factored into seat distribution, a mechanism intended to foster stable parliamentary majorities.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Moldova adheres to parliamentary principles. Following elections and the Parliament's constitution, the President of the Republic, after consultations with parliamentary factions, nominates a candidate for Prime Minister. This nominee must secure parliamentary confidence for their cabinet and government program within 15 days. Given Moldova's frequent division between pro-European and pro-Russian forces, coalition negotiations often hinge on geopolitical alignment. A single-party government remains possible if one faction commands an absolute majority of the 101 seats.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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