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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Moldova (IMAS, February 14, 2022)

January 24, 2022 - February 14, 2022

1123 respondents

Next General Election in Moldova: 2030

The next General Election in Moldova is expected in 2030.

Moldova's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the IMAS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 37.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IMAS?

According to the latest national poll in Moldova by IMAS, BECS leads with 36.1%. They are followed by PAS: 35.2%, Ș.O.R.: 15.7%, PN: 5.8%, PDA: 1.8%, PDM: 1.2%, PPDA: 1.2% and AUR: 0.5%. Other parties secure 2.5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Moldova
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Moldova
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the IMAS Projection?

56

PolitPro Score

IMAS achieved a PolitPro Score of 56 out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, IMAS's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

IMAS at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Moldovan election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IMAS)

According to IMAS, 4 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Moldova's parliament: BECS with 40 representatives, PAS with 38 representatives, Ș.O.R. with 17 representatives and PN with 6 representatives.

Moldova's Electoral System

The Parliament of the Republic of Moldova comprises 101 deputies, elected for a four-year term. Since the 2022 electoral code reform, the entire Parliament is now elected via pure proportional representation within a single nationwide constituency. Voters cast their ballots for closed party lists. This system replaced a short-lived mixed-member proportional system, aiming to bolster political stability and diminish the influence of local oligarchic structures in single-member districts. Seat allocation directly reflects parties' nationwide vote share.

Electoral Thresholds

Moldova's parliamentary elections feature tiered electoral thresholds designed to prevent legislative fragmentation. Individual political parties must secure 5% of the nationwide valid votes to enter Parliament. For electoral blocs (alliances) comprising two or more parties, the threshold rises to 7%. Independent candidates can also compete, facing a reduced 2% threshold. Votes cast for parties failing to clear these hurdles are not factored into seat distribution, a mechanism intended to foster stable parliamentary majorities.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Moldova adheres to parliamentary principles. Following elections and the Parliament's constitution, the President of the Republic, after consultations with parliamentary factions, nominates a candidate for Prime Minister. This nominee must secure parliamentary confidence for their cabinet and government program within 15 days. Given Moldova's frequent division between pro-European and pro-Russian forces, coalition negotiations often hinge on geopolitical alignment. A single-party government remains possible if one faction commands an absolute majority of the 101 seats.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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