Latest voting intention survey by ICA for Montenegro
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Montenegro conducted by ICA, the parties received the following results: DPS 35.1%, ZbCG 25.9%, MjNN 15.5%, URA 7.5%, BS 5.4%, AL 4.4%, SDP 3.1% and SD 2.6%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1004 people during the period 11.08.2020 - 11.08.2020.
1004 participants
11.08.2020 - 11.08.2020
ICA
Seats in parliament
81
Majority requires 41 seats
DPS
30
36.2%
SDP
2
3.2%
URA
7
7.7%
MjNN
13
16%
BS
4
5.6%
ZbCG
22
26.7%
AL
3
4.5%
DPS + MjNN
ZbCG + MjNN + BS + AL
DPS + URA + BS
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in ICA pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
2.11
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.