Latest Opinion Poll for Montenegro's Election (CeDem, June 26, 2017).

June 5, 2017 - June 26, 2017

1032 respondents

Next General Election in Montenegro: 2027

The next General Election in Montenegro is expected in 2027.

Who is leading in the latest poll from CeDem?

In Monténégro's latest opinion poll, conducted by CeDem on June 26, 2017, DPS leads with 39%. Trailing behind are DCG: 19.9%, DF: 11.6%, DEMOS: 5.9%, SNP: 4.9%, URA: 4%, SDP: 3.9%, SD: 3.2%, BS: 3.1%, Forca: 1.2%, AA: 1.1% and PCG: 0.9%. Other parties secure 1.3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Montenegro
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the CeDem Projection?

63

PolitPro Score

CeDem achieved a PolitPro Score of 63 out of 100.

2.3

Election Accuracy

On average, CeDem's figures deviate by 2.3 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

CeDem at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

81
Majority requires 41 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Montenegro is 3%.

DPS + DCG
Unknown
63.0%
DPS + DEMOS + SNP
Unknown
54.3%
DPS + DEMOS + URA
Unknown
53.1%
DPS + DEMOS + SDP
Unknown
53.1%
DPS + DEMOS + BS
Unknown
51.9%
DPS + DEMOS + SD
Unknown
51.9%
DPS + DEMOS
Unknown
49.4%
DPS + SNP
Unknown
46.9%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: CeDem)

According to CeDem, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Montenegro's parliament: DPS with 34 representatives, DCG with 17 representatives, DF with 10 representatives, DEMOS with 6 representatives, SNP with 4 representatives, URA with 3 representatives, SDP with 3 representatives, SD with 2 representatives and BS with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Montenegro

Montenegro's Parliament, the Skupština, comprises 81 deputies elected for a four-year term. The electoral system employs pure proportional representation within a single nationwide constituency, utilizing closed lists. A distinctive feature in Montenegro is the protection of national minorities: while most parties face a general electoral threshold, minority groups benefit from significantly lower hurdles. This ensures adequate representation for diverse population segments, including Bosniaks, Albanians, and Croats, in the Skupština.

Electoral Thresholds

Montenegro mandates a nationwide electoral threshold of 3% for parties to enter Parliament. For parties or coalitions representing national minorities (provided they constitute a maximum of 15% of the total population), this threshold drops to 0.7%. A special provision further applies to the Croatian minority: if none of their lists reach the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes still secures a mandate, provided it garners at least 0.35% of the total vote. These differentiated thresholds aim to balance political stability with inclusive representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Montenegro requires a majority of at least 41 out of 81 seats. Given that the proportional representation system often fragments the party landscape, coalitions are the norm. Following elections, the President proposes a Prime Minister after consultations with parliamentary factions. In political practice, minority parties frequently play a pivotal kingmaker role. Coalition negotiations typically focus on issues such as EU integration, anti-corruption efforts, and the nation's economic development.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

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