Latest Opinion Poll for Montenegro's Election (CeDem, December 27, 2023).

December 12, 2023 - December 27, 2023

1003 respondents

Next General election in Montenegro: 2027

The next General election in Montenegro is expected in 2027.

Who is leading in the latest poll from CeDem?

In Monténégro's latest opinion poll, conducted by CeDem on December 27, 2023, PES leads with 24.3%. Trailing behind are DPS: 23.9%, NSD: 10.9%, DCG: 10%, BS: 7%, DNP: 5.7%, URA: 3.9%, SNP: 3%, Albanski forum: 2.8%, SDP: 2.5% and SD: 1.8%. Other parties secure 4.2% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Montenegro
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the CeDem Projection?

63

PolitPro Score

CeDem achieved a PolitPro Score of 63 out of 100.

2.3

Election Accuracy

On average, CeDem's figures deviate by 2.3 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

CeDem at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

81
Majority requires 41 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Montenegro is 3%.

PES + DPS
Unknown
55.6%
PES + DCG + BS + DNP
Unknown
54.3%
PES + NSD + BS + DNP
Unknown
54.3%
PES + DCG + NSD
Unknown
53.1%
DPS + DCG + BS + DNP
Unknown
53.1%
PES + DCG + BS
Unknown
48.1%
PES + NSD + BS
Unknown
48.1%
DPS + DCG + BS
Unknown
46.9%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: CeDem)

According to CeDem, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Montenegro's parliament: PES with 23 representatives, DPS with 22 representatives, NSD with 10 representatives, DCG with 10 representatives, BS with 6 representatives, DNP with 5 representatives, URA with 3 representatives and SNP with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Montenegro

Montenegro's Parliament, the Skupština, comprises 81 deputies elected for a four-year term. The electoral system employs pure proportional representation within a single nationwide constituency, utilizing closed lists. A distinctive feature in Montenegro is the protection of national minorities: while most parties face a general electoral threshold, minority groups benefit from significantly lower hurdles. This ensures adequate representation for diverse population segments, including Bosniaks, Albanians, and Croats, in the Skupština.

Electoral Thresholds

Montenegro mandates a nationwide electoral threshold of 3% for parties to enter Parliament. For parties or coalitions representing national minorities (provided they constitute a maximum of 15% of the total population), this threshold drops to 0.7%. A special provision further applies to the Croatian minority: if none of their lists reach the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes still secures a mandate, provided it garners at least 0.35% of the total vote. These differentiated thresholds aim to balance political stability with inclusive representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Montenegro requires a majority of at least 41 out of 81 seats. Given that the proportional representation system often fragments the party landscape, coalitions are the norm. Following elections, the President proposes a Prime Minister after consultations with parliamentary factions. In political practice, minority parties frequently play a pivotal kingmaker role. Coalition negotiations typically focus on issues such as EU integration, anti-corruption efforts, and the nation's economic development.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

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