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Latest Opinion Poll for Montenegro's Election (House of Win, June 28, 2020).

June 20, 2020 - June 28, 2020

1211 respondents

Next General Election in Montenegro: 2027

The next General Election in Montenegro is expected in 2027.

Who is leading in the latest poll from House of Win?

The latest national poll in Montenegro, conducted by House of Win, shows DPS commanding 39.8% support, with DF: 13.8%, DCG: 13.2%, SD: 6.2%, SNP: 5.1%, BS: 4.2%, SDP: 3.8%, AL: 3.3%, DEMOS: 2.9%, URA: 2.2%, PCG: 2.1% and UCG: 0.8% trailing. Other parties secure 2.6% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Montenegro
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Montenegro
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the House of Win Projection?

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PolitPro Score

House of Win achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, House of Win's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

House of Win at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Montenegro is 3%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • DPS
    ??%
  • DCG
    ??%
  • SNP
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • DPS
    ??%
  • DCG
    ??%
  • SNP
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • DCG
    ??%
  • SNP
    ??%
  • BS
    ??%
  • URA
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
DPS + DCG
Unknown
60.5%
DPS + SD
Unknown
53.1%
DPS + SDP + BS
Unknown
53.1%
DPS + SNP
Unknown
51.9%
DPS + SDP
Unknown
49.4%
DPS + BS
Unknown
49.4%
DPS
Unknown
45.7%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: House of Win)

According to House of Win, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Montenegro's parliament: DPS with 37 representatives, DF with 13 representatives, DCG with 12 representatives, SD with 6 representatives, SNP with 5 representatives, BS with 3 representatives, SDP with 3 representatives and AL with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Montenegro

Montenegro's Parliament, the Skupština, comprises 81 deputies elected for a four-year term. The electoral system employs pure proportional representation within a single nationwide constituency, utilizing closed lists. A distinctive feature in Montenegro is the protection of national minorities: while most parties face a general electoral threshold, minority groups benefit from significantly lower hurdles. This ensures adequate representation for diverse population segments, including Bosniaks, Albanians, and Croats, in the Skupština.

Electoral Thresholds

Montenegro mandates a nationwide electoral threshold of 3% for parties to enter Parliament. For parties or coalitions representing national minorities (provided they constitute a maximum of 15% of the total population), this threshold drops to 0.7%. A special provision further applies to the Croatian minority: if none of their lists reach the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes still secures a mandate, provided it garners at least 0.35% of the total vote. These differentiated thresholds aim to balance political stability with inclusive representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Montenegro requires a majority of at least 41 out of 81 seats. Given that the proportional representation system often fragments the party landscape, coalitions are the norm. Following elections, the President proposes a Prime Minister after consultations with parliamentary factions. In political practice, minority parties frequently play a pivotal kingmaker role. Coalition negotiations typically focus on issues such as EU integration, anti-corruption efforts, and the nation's economic development.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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