Latest Opinion Poll for Montenegro's Election (Ipsos, October 12, 2017).

October 6, 2017 - October 12, 2017

1220 respondents

Next General Election in Montenegro: 2027

The next General Election in Montenegro is expected in 2027.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Ipsos?

In Monténégro's latest opinion poll, conducted by Ipsos on October 12, 2017, DPS leads with 40%. Trailing behind are DCG: 23%, DF: 15%, SNP: 5%, URA: 3%, BS: 3%, DEMOS: 3%, SD: 3%, SDP: 3% and AA: 1%. Other parties secure 1% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Ipsos Projection?

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PolitPro Score

Ipsos achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Ipsos's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Ipsos at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

81
Majority requires 41 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Montenegro is 3%.

DPS + DCG
Unknown
64.2%
DPS + SNP + URA
Unknown
50.6%
DPS + SNP + SDP
Unknown
49.4%
DPS + SNP + BS
Unknown
49.4%
DPS + SNP + SD
Unknown
49.4%
DPS + SNP + DEMOS
Unknown
49.4%
DPS + SNP
Unknown
46.9%
DPS + URA
Unknown
44.4%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Ipsos)

According to Ipsos, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Montenegro's parliament: DPS with 33 representatives, DCG with 19 representatives, DF with 13 representatives, SNP with 5 representatives, URA with 3 representatives, BS with 2 representatives, DEMOS with 2 representatives, SD with 2 representatives and SDP with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Montenegro

Montenegro's Parliament, the Skupština, comprises 81 deputies elected for a four-year term. The electoral system employs pure proportional representation within a single nationwide constituency, utilizing closed lists. A distinctive feature in Montenegro is the protection of national minorities: while most parties face a general electoral threshold, minority groups benefit from significantly lower hurdles. This ensures adequate representation for diverse population segments, including Bosniaks, Albanians, and Croats, in the Skupština.

Electoral Thresholds

Montenegro mandates a nationwide electoral threshold of 3% for parties to enter Parliament. For parties or coalitions representing national minorities (provided they constitute a maximum of 15% of the total population), this threshold drops to 0.7%. A special provision further applies to the Croatian minority: if none of their lists reach the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes still secures a mandate, provided it garners at least 0.35% of the total vote. These differentiated thresholds aim to balance political stability with inclusive representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Montenegro requires a majority of at least 41 out of 81 seats. Given that the proportional representation system often fragments the party landscape, coalitions are the norm. Following elections, the President proposes a Prime Minister after consultations with parliamentary factions. In political practice, minority parties frequently play a pivotal kingmaker role. Coalition negotiations typically focus on issues such as EU integration, anti-corruption efforts, and the nation's economic development.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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