Current election polls and polling data from Ipsos

Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for Netherlands

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Netherlands conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: PVV 22%, GL/PvdA 15.5%, VVD 13.4%, CDA 10.1%, D66 8.2%, SP 4.6%, PvdD 4.3%, BBB 3.8%, Denk 3.2%, Volt 2.6%, CU 2.5%, SGP 2.4%, FvD 2.2%, NSC 1.9% and JA21 1.7%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2279 people during the period 20.01.2025 - 20.01.2025.
2279 participants
12.01.2025 - 20.01.2025
Ipsos
Development since the last election on 22.11.2023
PVV
-1.5
GL/PvdA
-0.3
VVD
-1.9
CDA
+6.8
D66
+1.9
SP
+1.5
PvdD
+2.0
BBB
-0.8
DENK
+0.8
Volt
+0.9
CU
+0.5
SGP
+0.3
FvD
±0.0
NSC
-11.0
JA21
+1.0
PVV
22.0
-1.2
GL/PvdA
15.5
+1.3
VVD
13.4
-0.7
CDA
10.1
+1.4
D66
8.2
-0.5
SP
4.6
+0.1
PvdD
4.3
-0.6
BBB
3.8
+0.5
DENK
3.2
+0.7
Volt
2.6
-0.2
CU
2.5
+0.2
SGP
2.4
+0.3
FvD
2.2
+0.1
NSC
1.9
-0.2
JA21
1.7
+0.2
Others
1.6
-1.4

Seats in parliament

150
Majority requires 76 seats
SP
7
4.7%
PvdD
6
4%
GL/PvdA
24
16%
Volt
4
2.7%
D66
13
8.7%
BBB
6
4%
DENK
5
3.3%
VVD
21
14%
CDA
16
10.7%
CU
3
2%
SGP
3
2%
NSC
2
1.3%
PVV
35
23.3%
FvD
3
2%
JA21
2
1.3%
PVV + VVD + CDA + D66
56.7%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66 + BBB
53.3%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66 + Denk
52.7%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66 + Denk
52.7%
PVV + VVD + CDA + CU + FvD
52.0%
PVV + VVD + CDA + SGP + FvD
52.0%
PVV + VVD + CDA + CU + SGP
52.0%
PVV + VVD + CDA + BBB
52.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + BBB + FvD
52.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + BBB + CU
52.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + BBB + SGP
52.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + BBB + SGP
52.0%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66 + Volt
52.0%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66 + CU
51.3%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66 + SGP
51.3%
PVV + VVD + CDA + FvD
50.0%
PVV + VVD + CDA + CU
50.0%
PVV + VVD + CDA + SGP
50.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + CU + FvD
50.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + BBB
50.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + SGP + FvD
50.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + CU + SGP
50.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + SGP + FvD
50.0%
PVV + VVD + D66 + CU + SGP
50.0%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66
49.3%
72

PolitPro Score

Ipsos achieves a score of 72/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
BBB
2
92
6
CDA
1
90
9
CU
1
99
0
D66
2
91
7
DENK
2
98
0
FvD
15
83
2
GL/PvdA
18
82
0
JA21
5
95
0
NSC
10
90
0
PVV
12
81
7
PvdD
0
99
1
SGP
0
100
0
SP
7
91
2
VVD
1
64
35
Volt
0
98
2

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

2.3

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.3 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
2.59
 Parliamentary Election in Niederlande 2023 2/2
2.1
 Parliamentary Election in Niederlande 2021 3/4

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
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