Latest Opinion Poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia State Election (INSA, October 11, 2021)

October 4, 2021 - October 11, 2021

1000 respondents

Next General election in North Rhine-Westphalia: 2027

The next General election in North Rhine-Westphalia is expected in 2027.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 37.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

In the latest opinion poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election, conducted by INSA on October 11, 2021, SPD leads with 33%. Trailing are CDU: 20%, FDP: 15%, Grüne: 13%, AfD: 8% and Die Linke: 4%. Other parties secure 7% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: North Rhine-Westphalia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

181
Majority requires 91 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia is 5%.

SPD + CDU
Centre
59.7%
SPD + FDP
Centre-Left
54.1%
CDU + FDP + Grüne
Centre-Left
54.1%
SPD + Grüne
Centre-Left
51.4%
CDU + FDP + AfD
Centre-Right
48.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the North Rhine-Westphalia Landtag: SPD with 67 representatives, CDU with 41 representatives, FDP with 31 representatives, Grüne with 26 representatives and AfD with 16 representatives.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Electoral System

North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state, employs a personalized proportional representation electoral system. With 128 constituencies, the Landtag (state parliament) in Düsseldorf, boasting a minimum of 181 seats, ranks among Europe's largest. The high number of direct mandates frequently results in numerous overhang and leveling seats, potentially expanding the total number of representatives to over 200.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent threshold stands as the sole barrier for parties to enter the Landtag. As NRW is considered the 'heartland' of Social Democracy and a vital industrial hub, the battle for 5% here often serves as a crucial barometer for national sentiment. No basic mandate clause applies.

Government Formation and Traditions

Coalitions forged in NRW frequently serve as blueprints for federal government formations. Currently, a black-green alliance governs, demonstrating how industrial interests and climate protection can be reconciled. Forming a government in the 'Ständehaus' (state parliament building) demands diplomatic skill to unite the diverse interests of the Ruhr region, Rhineland, and Westphalia.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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