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Latest Opinion Poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia State Election (INSA, October 11, 2021)

October 4, 2021 - October 11, 2021

1000 respondents

Next General Election in North Rhine-Westphalia: April 25, 2027

The next General Election in North Rhine-Westphalia takes place in 253 days.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 37.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

The latest national poll in North Rhine-Westphalia, conducted by INSA, shows SPD commanding 33% support. Trailing are CDU: 20%, FDP: 15%, Grüne: 13%, AfD: 8% and Die Linke: 4%. Other parties secure 7% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: North Rhine-Westphalia
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in North Rhine-Westphalia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

83

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 83 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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  • CDU
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  • FDP
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • CDU
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  • FDP
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  • Grüne
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  • AfD
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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  • Linke
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the North Rhine-Westphalia Landtag: SPD with 67 representatives, CDU with 41 representatives, FDP with 31 representatives, Grüne with 26 representatives and AfD with 16 representatives.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Electoral System

North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state, employs a personalized proportional representation electoral system. With 128 constituencies, the Landtag (state parliament) in Düsseldorf, boasting a minimum of 181 seats, ranks among Europe's largest. The high number of direct mandates frequently results in numerous overhang and leveling seats, potentially expanding the total number of representatives to over 200.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent threshold stands as the sole barrier for parties to enter the Landtag. As NRW is considered the 'heartland' of Social Democracy and a vital industrial hub, the battle for 5% here often serves as a crucial barometer for national sentiment. No basic mandate clause applies.

Government Formation and Traditions

Coalitions forged in NRW frequently serve as blueprints for federal government formations. Currently, a black-green alliance governs, demonstrating how industrial interests and climate protection can be reconciled. Forming a government in the 'Ständehaus' (state parliament building) demands diplomatic skill to unite the diverse interests of the Ruhr region, Rhineland, and Westphalia.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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