Latest Opinion Poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia State Election (INSA, May 2, 2023)

April 24, 2023 - May 2, 2023

1000 respondents

Next General election in North Rhine-Westphalia: 2027

The next General election in North Rhine-Westphalia is expected in 2027.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 58.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

In the latest opinion poll for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election, conducted by INSA on May 2, 2023, CDU leads with 36%. Trailing are SPD: 22%, Grüne: 17%, AfD: 9%, FDP: 7% and Die Linke: 3%. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: North Rhine-Westphalia
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in North Rhine-Westphalia

Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

181
Majority requires 91 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia is 5%.

CDU + SPD
Centre
63.5%
CDU + Grüne
Centre
58.0%
CDU + AfD + FDP
Centre-Right
56.9%
SPD + Grüne + FDP
Left
50.8%
CDU + AfD
Right
49.2%
CDU + FDP
Centre-Right
47.0%
SPD + Grüne
Left
43.1%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the North Rhine-Westphalia Landtag: CDU with 71 representatives, SPD with 44 representatives, Grüne with 34 representatives, AfD with 18 representatives and FDP with 14 representatives.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Electoral System

North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state, employs a personalized proportional representation electoral system. With 128 constituencies, the Landtag (state parliament) in Düsseldorf, boasting a minimum of 181 seats, ranks among Europe's largest. The high number of direct mandates frequently results in numerous overhang and leveling seats, potentially expanding the total number of representatives to over 200.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent threshold stands as the sole barrier for parties to enter the Landtag. As NRW is considered the 'heartland' of Social Democracy and a vital industrial hub, the battle for 5% here often serves as a crucial barometer for national sentiment. No basic mandate clause applies.

Government Formation and Traditions

Coalitions forged in NRW frequently serve as blueprints for federal government formations. Currently, a black-green alliance governs, demonstrating how industrial interests and climate protection can be reconciled. Forming a government in the 'Ständehaus' (state parliament building) demands diplomatic skill to unite the diverse interests of the Ruhr region, Rhineland, and Westphalia.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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